NOAA’s Hurricane Predictions Challenged by Fifth Graders

(May 28, 2011) The National Center for Public Policy Research challenges the accuracy of NOAAs hurricane predictions.

By Nikki Fotheringham for Energy Probe

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has gained notoriety for its less than accurate predictions for the number of hurricanes in a season. Even though it managed to meet its predictions for last year’s hurricane season, it has to date managed an underwhelming success rate of 29%. This is only the second time in seven years it has correctly predicted the frequency of hurricanes over the summer. Its recent success must have been somewhat of a relief since the National Center for Public Policy Research had challenged NOAA to see who could make the most accurate forecast and presented as its own candidate, a chimp with a set of die and a craps table.

Undeterred by last year’s loss, the NCPPR has renewed its challenge, this time pitting fifth graders Chris and Kate against the collective predictive NOAA genius. Their divination tools of choice? A deck of cards and a bucketful of lively banter. This year’s NOAA predictions have left a wide margin for error with a generous spread of 6 to 10 hurricanes. The fifth grades have seen their challenged and upped the ante to 3 to 8 hurricanes in 2011.

The point of NCPPR’s shenanigans is to prove that forecasting based on speculative science (like hurricane prediction) is inaccurate and unreliable and should not be utilized to shape public policy.

David Ridenour, vice president of the NCPPR points out that alarming forecasts regarding imminent apocalyptic change, including rising temperatures and sea levels, droughts and extreme weather, made by NOAA have proved as reliable as their hurricane predictions. Until more accurate forecasts can be made, it seems fatuous to create green house gas emission policies based on scientific speculation.

Watch the NCPPR’s video produced by members Steven Crowder and filmmaker and actor Jordan Crowder here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz_oPwMosEk&feature=youtu.be

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