National Post   February 9/2006

Dark days ahead   by Tom Adams

Thanks to Premier Dalton McGuinty’s off-coal policy, Ontarians are now on track for 25%-plus power bill increases and the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator has been warning of the threat of blackouts. Premier McGuinty’s off-coal policy brings something else, too: dirty air. McGuinty’s fixation on ridding the province of coal is irrational from start to finish.

Ontario hosts two clean coal plants, Lambton 3 and Lambton 4 near Sarnia. Their emissions rank in the top 2% for cleanliness in all NAFTA. In contrast, Ontario imports much dirtier power from the U.S. The Ohio and Michigan coal plants within 160 km of the Michigan/Southern Ontario border ─ the province’s largest power import point ─ have average emissions of mercury 8.2 times higher. Closing Lambton 3 and Lambton 4 in 2007, as McGuinty has ordered, is a recipe for dirty air.

Without coal power, Ontario becomes massively dependent on gas-fired power. Wind mills and nuclear reactors aren’t up to the job of replacing coal because their output can’t be cranked up and down, as needed to meet the changing power needs of Ontarians and Ontario industry. Only gas power ─ and hydro-electric dams in the very few remaining sites that are available ─ can match coal’s controllability to meet changing consumer demands.

Even if cost was no object ─ and natural gas power costs three times that of power from Lambton 3 and 4 ─ it is only a matter of time before McGuinty admits that the coal closures scheduled for 2007 won’t happen. Replacement power cannot be in place in time.

McGuinty has banked on a handful of natural gas generating plants as replacements for the coal capacity he’s retiring. One ─ a large gas power station in Mississauga ─ was cancelled in December. The other ─ a large coal-replacing gas-fired station near Sarnia ─ is in limbo. Its main investor, Calpine Corp., recently went bankrupt.

Tellingly, Calpine’s dependence on gas-fired power killed the company. Record-high gas prices made Calpine plants uneconomic, convincing customers to flee to more economic alternatives and forcing Calpine to go under.

Even if the proposed Calpine gas power station can be rescued and McGuinty comes to his senses on coal, Ontario will gain nothing in power reliability. McGuinty located the proposed station adjacent to the existing power complex at Lambton, where transmission capacity is limited. The bottle-neck will idle half of generation potential in the area.

Another natural gas option ─ liquified natural gas ─ is expensive and years away. It is also insecure, since it comes from unstable countries like Algeria and Russia. If Ontario can secure liquified natural gas, it will do nothing for the environment: When used to generate power, liquified natural gas and coal release about the same carbon-dioxide when considered on a life cycle basis.

While Ontario is mired in energy insecurity, the cost of McGuinty’s coal-shutdown mania rises. On May 1, power consumers across Ontario will see sharp increases in residential power rates, in some regions as high as 25%. In coming years, the rate hikes will be greater still. Some of the May 1 increase, and most of the future increases, will be directly attributed to McGuinty’s extravagantly expensive power purchases.

Ironically, the best potential for a large-scale reduction in emissions from fossil fuel plants comes in better ─ not less ─ use of coal. And here, too, McGuinty has entirely missed the boat. Only four of Ontario’s 15 coal generators have modern pollution controls. Only two ─ Lambton 3 and 4 ─ have the full suite of end-of-pipe solutions. Because coal shutdowns have become official government policy, Crown-owned coal operator Ontario Power Generation is stalled in securing the labour, fuel supply and mechanical maintenance necessary to keep coal plants operating after the planned shutdown date of 2007. Pollution control upgrades are nowhere on the radar screen.

As a result, Ontario’s coal plants will be running beyond 2007 and most will be running dirty. Even our cleanest ones are primitive compared with the environmental performance of the leading units now running in the U.S., Japan, and Europe.

The leading European coal technologies, to protect against possible regulations that may require greenhouse gas reductions, have adopted new coal burners that blend coal with agricultural wastes. Since these wastes can be produced with close to carbon-dioxide neutrality, the ultimate power-related emissions of such dual-fuel stations can be controlled by adjusting the fuel mix to meet changing emission control rules. European farmers have gained new markets as these machines get installed.

Ontario should adopt new state-of-the-art coal plants to replace our worst generators and to fill Ontario’s frightening power supply gap. The sooner McGuinty reverses his senseless anti-coal policy, the better off our economy and our environment will be.