Tom Adams
Presentatio to CAMPUT
May 16, 2006
Electricity Future: Not Gas, Nuclear or Hydro
Presentation to CAMPUT Tom Adams, Energy Probe* May 16th, 2006
*URL: <www.energyprobe.org>, e
mail: <tomadams@nextcity.com>,
Ph: 416-964-9223 ext. 239
1
What is Energy Probe?
•Consumer-based national public interest and environmental research organization
•Independent of government, business and unions
•Broad public interest perspective focused on promoting economic efficiency in resource use and conservation
•Active for more than 35 years
2
Gas-fired Generation: Uneconomic
(Click here to be redirected to CAMPUT site and view PDF file located under Tuesday May 16th 2006, Tom Adams Energy Probe presentation, as well as the graph that accompanies this slide)
3
Gas Power: No Future
•U.S. is retreating from gas-fired power–Gas generators sell at a discount–Gas power may have peaked in 2005–Gas power in January and February 2006 lowest since at least 2001*
*http://tonto.eia.doe.gove/dnav/ng/hist/n3045us2m.htm 4 LNG No Solution
•LNG appears to be almost as GHG intensive as coal*
•Likelihood of accidents interrupting supply (e.g. Algeria January 2004)
•Special hazards (e.g. Cleveland 1944)
•Militarized security required
•International competition is intense (U.S. LNG imports in 2005 < 2004 notwithstanding higher demand and price)
*http://www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/pubs/sardenia%2005%20text%20Rev%204.pdf
5
Nuclear Power: Uneconomic
•Only reactor under construction in Europe/NA: Olkiluoto-3*–9 months behind schedule 15 months after getting construction license
•Advanced Candudesign far off–U.S. and China abandoned Candumodernization in 2005
*France ordered one reactor last month ( Flamanville-3)
6
Nuclear Economics:Play of the Month
•“If they end up with a lot of [long-term] nuclear contracts . . . then what we would look to come into this market would be a similar type of contract.” *April 28, 2006, Globe and Mail, “TransAltasets sights on Ontario: Province’s nuclear interest attracts utility”
7
AECL Subsidies (1953-2005)
•AECL’scontribution to the Federal debt: $74.9 B or 12% of total (NPV using federal borrowing rates)*
•Liberal subsidies: $4.3 million/day•Conservative subsidies: $2.6 million/day * “Federal Subsidies to Atomic Energy of Canada Limited”, EnergyProbe, January 11, 2006
8
Ontario Hydropower Imports: Uneconomic
•Quebec’s new build: ~10 ¢/kWh
•Manitoba new build (Conawapa) and Labrador (Lower Churchill) equidistantly remote from Toronto
•Harper government appears to be respecting constitutional division of powers i.e. feds out of provincial power problems
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Future: Clean Coal
•Proven, advanced technologies available fast on turnkey basis
•CO2equality with gas realistic, acid gas nearly eliminated, some Hg control achieved
•Cost of new supply: ~6 ¢/kWh (stable)
•Downtown coal is distributed generation
•Dispatchablecoal + intermittent renewables= reliable, emission controlled, reasonable cost power
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Energy Probe 