Lee Greenberg
National Post
February 1, 2005

Ontario’s plan to phase out coal-fired generating plants by 2007 is based on bad science, a report released yesterday states.

The study, commissioned by conservative think-tank the Fraser Institute, urges the government to abandon its coal decision, which author Kenneth Green says was made in a "hasty and unexamined" way.

Mr. Green, the Fraser Institute’s chief scientist, writes that "closing the coal-fired plants will imperil industrial development in Ontario, increase energy costs, and reduce the reliability of the electricity supply."

Coal-fired plants account for about one-quarter of Ontario’s electricity supply, equal to 7,000 megawatts. Energy Minister Dwight Duncan has announced plans to bring about 4,800 MW of new generation online by the cut-off date. At the same time, experts are cautioning of a looming electricity supply crisis, with two-thirds of the province’s generating capacity becoming obsolete in the next 20 years.

Mr. Green said the decision to abandon coal, taken by the Liberals while in opposition, was based on selective science and should be re-evaluated.

The study attacks two studies by the Ontario Medical Association and the Toronto Board of Public health that claim air-pollution levels kill thousands of people in the province every year.

Researchers ignored several U.S. studies that linked higher pollution with lower mortality rates, the study states, calling the practice tantamount to scientific "cherry-picking." "There’s no convincing evidence those plants are causing damage to people’s health or their property," Mr. Green said in an interview.

"There is no question that coal-fired plants contribute to Ontario’s air pollution emissions. The question is whether the harm associated with these emissions exceed the social and economic benefits of the electricity they provide."

Anti-coal proponents derided the report. "It’s just not true," said Jack Gibbons, chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance. "According the Ontario Medical Association, air pollution is a public health crisis in Ontario that’s killing over 2,000 people a year in the province. And I believe that the OMA is a much more credible source on public health issues than the Fraser Institute." Mr. Gibbons said Ontario’s five coal-fired plants produce as much pollution as 6.2 million cars and are responsible for 20% of Ontario’s smog. "Coal-fired power plants are a 19th Century technology that have no place in 20th Century Ontario."

But Tom Adams, executive director of Energy Probe, an industry watchdog opposed to nuclear generation, called the report worthwhile. "I think there are areas of environmental policy where a real consideration of the cost and benefits have not been taken into account."