Copenhagen another costly UN failure?

Danielle Smith
The Calgary Herald
December 14, 2009

No one really has any idea what climate change deal might come out of Copenhagen. While most Albertans probably sympathize with the general objective–burning less carbon-based fuel–there are two ways to get there: A sensible way which will probably work, and the political Copenhagen way which will prove to be another costly United Nations failure.

Canada was quick to sign on to the 1997 Kyoto treaty, which committed the country to reduce emissions to six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. The federal Liberal government then proceeded to do precisely nothing for the next decade to try to achieve it, leading to a mad scramble in the last few years. Governments have pledged billions of dollars on costly schemes in an attempt to show the world they intend to catch up. Alberta’s carbon capture and storage initiative may cost as much as $3 billion per year and won’t yield results for decades. A federal cap and trade program, which will be particularly hard on Alberta and Saskatchewan, could cost our national economy as much as $46 billion a year.

The enormous global wealth transfer being contemplated under a new deal at Copenhagen is the most troubling aspect of the talks. The World Bank estimates that developing nations will need $400 billion per year to develop clean energy rather than coal, and another $150 billion per year to adapt to changing climate conditions. One proposal for how this wealth transfer would be achieved is to turn carbon dioxide into an internationally traded commodity, then tax each trade to build the fund. Who would control the fund remains an open question, but the potential for political abuse is staggering. Canadian taxpayers should not submit to being taxed by a foreign authority over which they have no democratic control–this is as true of the United Nations as it is of the United States.

Then there is the question of the science. The embarrassing revelations contained in leaked e-mails suggest some scientists have been involved in an effort to understate the extent of scientific uncertainty regarding the case for man-made emissions causing global warming. Lawrence Soloman’s book, The Deniers, details study after scientific study casting doubt on some of the key claims behind the global warming “consensus.” His conclusion? “Global warming may be a problem, but it’s not a certain problem, and it’s certainly not one of epic proportions, as Al Gore would have us believe. It is one environmental concern among many, whose science is far from settled.”

Today, however, we have politicians talking like scientists and scientists talking like politicians. “Consensus” is a political term, not a scientific one. It is fair to say that a majority of scientists agree with the prevailing view; it is not fair to say there is a consensus. There is a difference. Consensus implies that most everyone agrees. For instance, it is accurate to say a majority of Alberta voters voted for the Progressive Conservatives in the last general election. It is not accurate to say Albertans reached a consensus to be governed by the PCs.

But setting aside the climate change question, there is a practical reality. The world is plainly in a transition away from high-carbon fuels and consumers want green energy options. There are tangible and practical ways that Alberta can assist this transition. Reducing energy use and improving energy efficiency should be top priorities. We should support research into clean coal, hydro, biomass, geothermal, hydrogen, nuclear, wind and solar power, while improving how we meter and price electricity. We should provide broad-based tax incentives to help individuals and businesses improve energy efficiency in their homes, buildings, vehicles, appliances and machinery. We should address the barriers to switching from high carbon fuels such as coal and gasoline, to lower carbon fuels such as natural gas.

But most of all we must avoid the fallacy that governments can predict winning technologies by providing direct subsidies to individual firms, or that having the government ration and tax carbon dioxide is a better way to achieve the greener world Canadians desire. There is a will to reduce emissions. But it must be left to each country– and each province–to find the best way.

Danielle smith is the leader of the wildrose alliance. She can be reached at danielle@wildrosealliance.ca

Posted in Energy Probe News, The Deniers | Leave a comment

Aldyen Donnelly: Kyoto discussions hang Canada (and Australia) out to dry

Question: I am concerned about this clause in the current draft of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

The clause I am most concerned about tracking is the following:

In the AWG-KP Negotiating Text:

F. Implementation
13…Annex I Parties shall not resort to unilateral measures against imports from developing countries on the grounds of protection and stabilization of the climate. Such measures would violate the provisions and principles of the Convention, in particular the principles established by Article 3, paragraphs 1 and 5.]

Brackets had already been removed from this clause in the negotiating text for the Kyoto Protocol-based version of the Copenhagen treaty in November, which normally would signal that these words are in and that is settled.

Few clauses cause me more concern than this one. First, it guarantees that the treaty will fail to deliver any global GHG reductions. More importantly, this clause delivers massive economic benefit to China, India, the Persian Gulf, Nigeria, Mexico, the EU and US at the direct expense of Canada and Australia—the developed world’s leading fossil fuel, building-product and food exporters.

If we got everything else right in the Copenhagen agreement, Canada still could not sign it if this clause is maintained. The good news is that it is most likely that a World Trade Organization tribunal would have to uphold a Canadian challenge to any tariffs on our exports based on this clause—as well as any GHG tariffs that discriminate against products on the basis of how they are made (GHG intensity), as opposed to their content (fossil carbon content).

That is, as long as Canada neither: (1) signs a treaty that includes this language, or (2) agrees to cross-border trade in any form of GHG or carbon quota instrument.  

Please note that this clause graphically highlights the most significant difference between the Kyoto and draft Copenhagen treaties and the highly successful Montreal Protocol (to curb production and consumption of chemicals the release of which deplete the ozone layer, "ODSs").  

In the Montreal Protocol, developed nations committed to reduce the production and import (e.g. consumption) of substances the production or consumption of which resulted in the release of ozone-depleting substances to the atmosphere. Therefore, by definition, the developed nation export markets for developing nation-produced ODSs shrank at the same rate that domestic developed nation production of those substances shrank. Developing nations also committed to reduce production and imports over a schedule that started later and was longer in duration than the schedule for developed nations.

The known success of the Montreal Protocol combined with the UN’s continued incorporation of clause 13 in the AWG-KP text is a testament to the UN’s utter lack of true commitment to the stated environmental objectives of the Copenhagen process.

Posted in Aldyen Donnelly | Leave a comment

The gas of life

Lawrence Solomon
Financial Post
December 12, 2009

Western carbon dioxide emissions increase plant yields in the Third World. So why are they asking for reparations?

At Copenhagen, Third World countries are demanding hundreds of billions of dollars in reparations from the West for the consequences of the West’s fossil fuel burning, among them droughts and crop failures.

Third World countries have it backwards. The West’s CO2 emissions have been increasing crop yields while helping to ease the Third World’s water shortages. Rather than plead for reparations, Third World governments should offer a paean to Providence.

The bureaucrats at Copenhagen dread high CO2 levels. The biosphere craves them. Plants evolved when CO2 levels in the atmosphere stood at a healthy 1000 parts per million, two-to-three times today’s paltry level of about 380 parts per million. Plants crave CO2 so much that commercial greenhouse operators often enrich greenhouse air with CO2 — also known as nature’s fertilizer — to levels of 1500 parts per million, or four times that of our current atmosphere.

 Since humans began adding CO2 to the planet’s atmosphere, taking plants off their starvation rations by creating a planet-wide greenhouse, plants have thrived. Data from NASA satellites, which since the early 1980s have been tracking the amount of biota on Earth, vividly demonstrate the results. As CO2 emissions grew in leaps and bounds, so did plants — the data shows planet Earth is now greener than when those satellite measurements began.

 Growth in greenery varies from country to country, and within countries, because climatic factors are so many and so varied, but the overall trend is clear, and especially in the Third World. The Indian subcontinent, the Amazon, the tropical countries generally, all show marked improvement, with studies pointing to improvements in carbon dioxide levels as an important factor.

 China, which includes some of the most resource-stretched regions on the planet, provides the most dramatic demonstration of the boon in biota. As shown in a 2007 analysis by academics at the country’s prestigious Beijing Normal University, China’s plant growth increased by an astounding 24 % over the 18-year period studied, 1982 to 1999. The Chinese analysis, which like many others was based on satellite data, notes that China’s resource-constrained regions sometimes did particularly well. In water-constrained Northwest China, for example, plant growth increased by 29%. In Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, where temperatures ordinarily place severe limits on vegetation, plant growth increased by 30%. South China and East China, where sunlight is a limiting factor, saw plant growth increase by a still-impressive 19%. Changes in CO2 during those 18 years correlated well with the changes in vegetation.

 That plants love CO2 comes as no surprise — CO2 is not only their food, it is a gas to which they are superbly adapted. When the air is rich in CO2, plants don’t need to work as hard to breathe it in, letting them reduce the number of stomata, or air pores, on the surfaces of their leaves. Fewer pores means the plants breathe out less water vapour, letting them conserve moisture and better survive droughts. CO2 also helps plants survive droughts and other adverse conditions by extending their root systems, allowing them to collect minerals and moisture from afar. Through other mechanisms, CO2 protects plants against insect infestations, soil salinity and other environmental threats.

 This gas — also known as the gas of life — is healthful and helpful to humans, too. CO2 not only boosts agricultural yields, it boosts the antioxidant and vitamin content in plants, as well as their essential minerals. Also importantly, CO2 helps make hospitable marginal areas of the world that would otherwise be inhospitable.

Industrialization in the West, along with the fossil fuel burning that it has entailed, has been a win for the West and a win for the world, including the Third World. The colourless, odourless, tasteless gas called CO2 is indispensable to life and, because China and India are certain to rapidly increase their CO2 emissions, the world will soon be getting more of it. They say you can have too much of a good thing. With CO2, the science tells us, the planet is far, far away from reaching its cornucopia potential.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.

Sources for this column: 

Comprehensive analysis of the impact of climatic changes on Chinese terrestrial net primary productivity

A signal of increased vegetation activity of India from 1981 to 2001 observed using satellite – derived fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation

CLIMATE CHANGE — Statement of William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton University

Competing roles of rising CO2 and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Posted in Climate Change, Energy Probe News | 1 Comment

The gas of life

(Dec. 12, 2009) Western carbon dioxide emissions increase plant yields in the Third World. So why are they asking for reparations?

At Copenhagen, Third World countries are demanding hundreds of billions of dollars in reparations from the West for the consequences of the West’s fossil fuel burning, among them droughts and crop failures.

Third World countries have it backwards. The West’s CO2 emissions have been increasing crop yields while helping to ease the Third World’s water shortages. Rather than plead for reparations, Third World governments should offer a paean to Providence.

The bureaucrats at Copenhagen dread high CO2 levels. The biosphere craves them. Plants evolved when CO2 levels in the atmosphere stood at a healthy 1000 parts per million, two-to-three times today’s paltry level of about 380 parts per million. Plants crave CO2 so much that commercial greenhouse operators often enrich greenhouse air with CO2 — also known as nature’s fertilizer — to levels of 1500 parts per million, or four times that of our current atmosphere.

 Since humans began adding CO2 to the planet’s atmosphere, taking plants off their starvation rations by creating a planet-wide greenhouse, plants have thrived. Data from NASA satellites, which since the early 1980s have been tracking the amount of biota on Earth, vividly demonstrate the results. As CO2 emissions grew in leaps and bounds, so did plants — the data shows planet Earth is now greener than when those satellite measurements began.

 Growth in greenery varies from country to country, and within countries, because climatic factors are so many and so varied, but the overall trend is clear, and especially in the Third World. The Indian subcontinent, the Amazon, the tropical countries generally, all show marked improvement, with studies pointing to improvements in carbon dioxide levels as an important factor.

 China, which includes some of the most resource-stretched regions on the planet, provides the most dramatic demonstration of the boon in biota. As shown in a 2007 analysis by academics at the country’s prestigious Beijing Normal University, China’s plant growth increased by an astounding 24 % over the 18-year period studied, 1982 to 1999. The Chinese analysis, which like many others was based on satellite data, notes that China’s resource-constrained regions sometimes did particularly well. In water-constrained Northwest China, for example, plant growth increased by 29%. In Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, where temperatures ordinarily place severe limits on vegetation, plant growth increased by 30%. South China and East China, where sunlight is a limiting factor, saw plant growth increase by a still-impressive 19%. Changes in CO2 during those 18 years correlated well with the changes in vegetation.

 That plants love CO2 comes as no surprise — CO2 is not only their food, it is a gas to which they are superbly adapted. When the air is rich in CO2, plants don’t need to work as hard to breathe it in, letting them reduce the number of stomata, or air pores, on the surfaces of their leaves. Fewer pores means the plants breathe out less water vapour, letting them conserve moisture and better survive droughts. CO2 also helps plants survive droughts and other adverse conditions by extending their root systems, allowing them to collect minerals and moisture from afar. Through other mechanisms, CO2 protects plants against insect infestations, soil salinity and other environmental threats.

 This gas — also known as the gas of life — is healthful and helpful to humans, too. CO2 not only boosts agricultural yields, it boosts the antioxidant and vitamin content in plants, as well as their essential minerals. Also importantly, CO2 helps make hospitable marginal areas of the world that would otherwise be inhospitable.

Industrialization in the West, along with the fossil fuel burning that it has entailed, has been a win for the West and a win for the world, including the Third World. The colourless, odourless, tasteless gas called CO2 is indispensable to life and, because China and India are certain to rapidly increase their CO2 emissions, the world will soon be getting more of it. They say you can have too much of a good thing. With CO2, the science tells us, the planet is far, far away from reaching its cornucopia potential.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.

Sources for this column: 

Comprehensive analysis of the impact of climatic changes on Chinese terrestrial net primary productivity

A signal of increased vegetation activity of India from 1981 to 2001 observed using satellite – derived fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation

CLIMATE CHANGE — Statement of William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton University

Competing roles of rising CO2 and climate change in the contemporary European carbon balance

Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, Dec. 12, 2009
Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Aldyen Donnelly: Fiddling with Cap and Trade: The Acid Rain example

The conclusions outlined in this Toronto Sun article are completely wrong.

It says "The U.S. figure [17%] is derived strictly from cuts that can be achieved by capping greenhouse gases and trading emissions permits."

This is not true.

In fact, the 17% reduction derives strictly from the normal US capital stock turnover rate (40% of US power generation capacity has to be retooled or retired before 2020 on a business as usual basis) and the "additional measures"…"fuel efficiency rules for cars, renewable electricity standards and investments in "green" development in poor countries,".

In fact, the proposed US GHG quota allocation and trading rule adds no incremental reductions before 2030. In this way, the US federal cap and trade system is consistent with the California and Western Climate Initiative (WCI) cap and trade regime. EVERY US cap and trade system in history has relied ENTIRELY on the foundation of "mandatory measures" to achieve its emission reduction objectives. There is NEVER an incremental reduction associated with the quota allocation and trading rule.  

Given the mandatory measures, the quota allocation and trading rule is a mechanism that governments attempt to use to shift economic rents in a manner different from the shift that the market will reveal without intervention. The reliance of the California/WCI system on the additional or "mandatory" measures, and the limited incremental role of the quota allocation, is explained in detail in the attached analysis and decision written by California’s Public Utilities Commission and Air Resources Board.

What is not explained in this very enlightening memo is the regulators’ rational for endorsing cap and trade.

It is very, very important to note that in US history, no cap and trade regime ever generated emission reductions. Every emission quota allocation is laid on top of a foundation of regulations or "mandatory measures". Compliance with the mandatory measures achieves emission reductions. Then, the US Congress lays a GHG quota allocation on top of those measures.

Through the quota allocation, Congress attempts to redistribute economic rents according to Congress’s objectives, in effect interfering with the efficient market response to the mandatory measures and ensuring that the market operates less efficiently than it otherwise might. More importantly, Congress has never successfully achieved its agenda through the emission quota and trading rule.

In every historical example, a subset of regulated market incumbents has been able to use the quota rule to their benefit, at the expense of US consumers, new market entrants and innovators, in particular.

The US SO2 market is a case study that tells this story quite effectively.

How the US SO2 Allowance Allocation and Trading Rule Effects a Wealth Transfer Within the US

For example, under the US Acid Rain regulations, every US utility-owned SO2-emitting power generation unit was assigned at least two mandatory SO2 emission limits: (1) an intensity limit (SO2/MMBTU heat input) and (2) an absolute annual limit. The SO2 regulation obliged regulated unit operators to apply for "SO2 permits", and these two limits were incorporated in the new permits. Then there was an SO2 allowance (quota) allocation to plant owners.

No plant operator can legally exceed either of the two SO2 emission limits outlined in the unit’s SO2 permits no matter how many surplus SO2 allowances that operator might hold.

Between 1995 and 1999, the EPA issued free US SO2 allowances only to the 425 oldest (built before 1970) and highest-emitting electricity generation units in the US. Over that 4-year period, the free allocation of SO2 allowances to those 425 units exceeded those units’ maximum physical capacity to discharge SO2 (at 100% capacity utilization without scrubbing technology).

The total allowance supply set aside for these old units equated to an average of 2.5 lbs of SO2 per MM BTU of maximum heat input capacity per plant. To put that rate in context, US EPA New Source Performance Standards ensured that every power generation unit built in the US after January 1, 1970 was designed and built to discharge no more than 1.25 lbsSO2/MMBTU heat input. In 1977, the US New Source Performance Standard for power generation units was amended to 0.8lbsSO2/MMBTU heat input.  

In other words, all of these old SO2 program "Phase I" units could cut their SO2 emissions below 1.25 lbsSO2/MMBTU simply by installing 30 year-old scrubber technology.  In fact, over 70% of the "reductions" to date attributed to the SO2 allowance market arose from the installation of scrubbers—before the end of 1996—at the nine largest power generation units in the US.

Why did these old plant operators suddenly invest in scrubbers in the fist year of the US Acid Rain Program?  It is the consistent US tradition to rule that once/when a pollutant/discharge is regulated by the US EPA, affected plant owners can claim 100% depreciation, for tax purposes, on any capital expenditures related to the measurement, control or reduction of that pollutant. In US tax lingo this is called "expensing capital in the same year".

70% of the reductions that most analysts attribute to the introduction of the permit trading rule is actually industry’s practical response to the change in capital depreciation rate that is associated with any US emission regulation—whether or not it incorporates a market provision. Most of the academics and government agencies that report on the "success" of the US SO2 allowance market fail to acknowledge the capital depreciation provision or the fact that it is unrelated to the trading provisions to which they often, incorrectly, attribute 100% of SO2 reductions in the regulated pool of SO2 sources.

In 2000, the first year of Phase II of the Acid Rain Program, the EPA freely allocated SO2 allowances to all of the rest of the existing utility-owned US power generation units (over 5,000 units), where the free allocation equaled the units’ permitted emission levels.  The free SO2 allocation to all (Phase I and Phase II) units last for a 35 year term.  

Starting in 2000, the aggregate free allocation of SO2 allowances to the oldest 425 units fell to, on average, roughly 1.75 lbSO2/MMBTU heat input.  But when you add the excess allowances that were awarded to the oldest US generation units over 1995 through 1999 period to the continuing allowance allocation to those units, if those units hoard their allowances they could continue to discharge SO2 at 1996 levels through 2014.

But the regulation also says that starting in 2000, any developer of any new US power generation unit has to buy 100% of the allowances they need to cover their SO2 emissions from the marketplace. And any operator who has a free SO2 allowance allocation continues to receive their schedule allocation for 35 years, even if/after they shut down the power plant to which the allowances were first allocated.

So, even though the typical new US utility-owned power plant discharges SO2 at 10% the rate of the 425 oldest plants, its developer has to surrender SO2 allowances to the EPA covering 100% of its SO2 discharges, and the new plant operator gets no free SO2 allowance allocation. The old plant owner receives free SO2 allowances through 2035, even if he shuts down the plant.

In other words, most of the US SO2 emission cuts since 1990 derive directly from the 1-year straight-line capital depreciation rate that came into effect in the US simply because of the introduction of a (any) new SO2 regulation. The remaining SO2 reductions were driven by the two (this is important…two) SO2 limits—one intensity and one absolute—that were written into every covered source’s operating permits. No regulated source can exceed its permitted emission limits, no matter how many SO2 allowances the source owner might have banked.

The full and intended effect of the SO2 allowance allocation is that developers of new, clean power generation capacity have to compensate owners for shutting down the oldest US power generation units through their SO2 allowance purchases. The free allocation of SO2 allowances to old plant owners was guaranteed for at least 35 years (50 years in some cases), even if the plant ceases operating, to ensure that compensation for the plant shut downs is earned for terms of at least that length.

Wash-Trading Dominates Existing Emission Allowances Markets

The unintended effect of the US SO2 allowance allocation and trading rule is that there are effectively no new entrants in the US electricity market, and there has been no productivity increase in the US electricity sector for the last 20 years.

Owners of the oldest power generation units earn higher returns to their other assets by shutting down plants and hoarding allowances. These operators do "lease" allowances for terms of 1 to 3 years to select new market entrants, who cannot operate without access to allowances. The allowance "leases" are constructed with swap agreements. After leasing operating rights from market incumbents for a number of years most new market entrants find they have little choice but to sell their new assets to an incumbent allowance holder.

Between 1995 and the end of 2002, 97% of SO2 allowance "transactions" reported by the US EPA to be trades between economically unrelated parties were "swaps". The allowance prices reported by the EPA over that period were largely imputed prices.  Relatively small fees were paid on swap agreements, which fees reflect the real cost of an allowance "lease".

Over 80% of the reported "trades" in the EU CO2 allowance market to date are also swaps/allowance leases. This explains why it is ALWAYS the case that reported prices for future vintage CO2 allowances are a relatively constant increment (roughly 4% to 5%) higher than market prices for current vintage allowances, on every CO2 exchange—even when it is evident that short and long term market prices are declining.

For most transactions, the only cash changing hands is the difference between the nearest future market price and the reported spot market price (the one-year lease rate).

The US Acid Rain Program: Really a Market Success Story?

There appears to be a global consensus that the US SO2 market rule is a major environmental success story. The US Government Accounting Office (GAO) has found it an efficient regulatory strategy because: (1) regulated sources consistently under-utilize their allowance allocations and (2) the "market price" of US SO2 allowances is lower than economists had estimated it would be before the regulation was implemented.

But, as outlined above, older plant owners are highly motivated to shut down their plants and hoard SO2 allowances. The allowance trading scheme enables these market incumbents to drive up the price of US electricity while they block new market entrants.  Apparent "under-utilization" of the originally excessive allowance supply is inevitable under these circumstances.

It is true that the apparent price of SO2 allowances is less than the marginal cost of control. But most years at least 5 newer plant operators fail to comply with their allowance holding mandates, because they are unable to buy (as opposed to "lease") their full SO2 allowance requirement. The fine for an SO2 allowance shortfall is $2,000 per allowance of shortfall plus 1.30 x the shortfall in additional allowances the following year. This tells us that the real market price for allowances exceeds $2,000 per tonne, at least in the years that certain operators are unable to secure their full allowance requirements.

And while academics and the GAO interpret the apparently low market price of allowances as a market "success", actual power generation unit operators who are not among the incumbents who have secured increased market power do not express the same view. The actual marginal continuing cost (operating costs plus capital cost recovery) of cutting SO2 emissions in the US is over $500/TSO2 (with 1-year straight-line depreciation for tax-paying entities) and up to $1,200/TSO2 (for entities that are not profit-earning and cannot take advantage of the capital depreciation benefit).

The current reported (apparent) market price for SO2 allowances is essentially meaningless. If you track SO2 allowance futures and spot market trades on the NYMEX, you will see 0 volume all of this week and most weeks.

Contrary to my statements above, the price imputed to US SO2 allowance futures is lower than the price imputed to current transactions. This has been true since 2005, when the US EPA introduced a rule that effectively cut the value of all allowances in half starting in 2010 and wipes this derivative out as a compliance unit by 2020.  The EPA took this action to try to un-wrestle market control from incumbents, but so far the EPA’s intervention has failed.  It was struck down by the US Supreme Court in 2008.

In the late 1970s, all members of the OECD pledged to cut national SO2 emissions 50% from 1980 levels by 2000.  When all is said and done, how did the US rank in terms of performance relative to this SO2 reduction pledge?

Second worst among developed OECD nations. Canada ranked worst.  

How did the world come to believe that such a failure of an emission management regime is the most effective emission management tool the world has ever seen?

Posted in Aldyen Donnelly | Leave a comment

Sources: Dirty climate data

December 5, 2009

Margaret Thatcher: Speech to Conservative Party Conference 1988 Oct 14

Margaret Thatcher: Speech to United Nations General Assembly (Global Environment)1989 Nov 8

Margaret Thatcher: Speech to the Royal Society 1988 Sep 27

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Observations — Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes — a new dataset from 1850

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Dirty climate data

(Dec. 5, 2009) The data from the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University — headquarters for Climategate — is now discredited. This discredits any findings by other research bodies that relied on the Climategate data. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Change | Leave a comment

Dirty climate data

Lawrence Solomon
Financial Post
December 5, 2009

The data from the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University — headquarters for Climategate — is now discredited. This discredits any findings by other research bodies that relied on the Climategate data.

How much falls from Climategate, whose participants read like a Who’s Who at the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? Not much, says CRU’s disgraced director, Phil Jones, pointing out that CRU’s data for global temperatures is but one of several datasets, all in general agreement. Besides, many argue, CRU was no linchpin to the science. The IPCC relied on numerous other sources. Throw CRU out, they say, and the IPCC’s conclusions remain unshakable.

In truth, if you throw CRU out, you’ve eviscerated the findings of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the most recent and most definite opus from the UN. This is the report, received with universal acclaim in 2007, which scarily stated: “The warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”

The argument over global warming requires evidence that the globe is warming in dangerous ways. This evidence the IPCC presents forcefully in its third chapter on surface and atmospheric warming, which rests overwhelmingly on the official global temperature record of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, called the HADCRUT3 temperature dataset.

And who produced the HADCRUT3 dataset for the World Meteorological Organization? The Hadley Centre of the UK government’s meteorological office (the HAD of HADCRUT3) and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (the CRU).

With HADCRUT3 in hand, the IPCC’s warming chapter confidently pronounced that “The rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the last 100 years,” that “2005 was one of the two warmest years on record,” and that “Changes in extremes of temperature are also consistent with warming of the climate.” With HADCRUT3, the co-authors of the IPCC warming chapter could show the temperatures going up, up, up.

Who were the IPCC co-authors who decided to use the HADCRUT3 temperature data? None other than two of the most questionable characters in the Climategate cast: the head of CRU, Phil Jones himself, and his cross-Atlantic correspondent, Kevin Trenberth, a lead author with the IPCC. Trenberth in 2004 also had a starring role in another noteworthy IPCC episode, held in the swirl of an active U.S. hurricane season. Not one to pass up an opportunity to sway the public to the urgency of global warming, Trenberth called a press conference to link global warming with hurricanes even though the IPCC’s own hurricane expert, Christopher Landsea, pleaded with Trenberth not to — the link of hurricanes and global warming had no basis in science.

If any chapter in the IPCC opus is more important than the warming chapter it is chapter nine, which concludes that man is the culprit “based on analyses of widespread temperature increases throughout the climate system and changes in other climate variables.” The source for the temperature data? HADCRUT3.

The centrality of HADCRUT3 data is no coincidence. The two British organizations, Hadley and CRU, have worked hand-in-glove since the Hadley Centre was created in 1989 by Margaret Thatcher. One year earlier, in a major address that established the UK’s early promotion of the global warming issue, Thatcher — a foe of the coal mining union and a fan of nuclear power — had pledged to tackle the greenhouse effect by replacing fossil fuels with nuclear power. She then promoted climate change science with funding and diplomacy, placing her people in senior positions at the nascent IPCC and elsewhere at the United Nations.

Hadley and CRU became major players in every IPCC report, in the World Meteorological Organization, in the IPCC’s iconic hockey-stick graph and in the UK government’s Stern Review that predicted economic calamity. In the minds of many, the Hadley-CRU datasets are the most authoritative source of global temperatures, both because their temperature records date back to 1850 and because they produced the first-ever synthesis of land and marine temperature data — the first truly global temperature record.

Except now we’re told that CRU disposed of the raw data some 20 years ago after it was manufactured into “homogenized” and “value added data.” The manufacturer 20 years ago? Another Climategate star, Tom Wigley, who was then the head of CRU.

But what of Phil Jones’s argument, that the Hadley and CRU datasets are nothing special. “Our global temperature series tallies with those of other, completely independent, groups of scientists working for NASA and the National Climate Data Centre in the United States, among others,” he says. “Even if you were to ignore our findings, theirs show the same results. The facts speak for themselves.”

The answer to Phil Jones comes from the Hadley Centre itself, through another fact that speaks for itself. “The datasets are largely based on the same raw data,” the FAQ page at the Hadley Centre website states, in explaining that NASA, the National Climate Data Center and Hadley-CRU all use the same data. The different results these organizations sometimes obtain, it elaborates, stems not from the data but from its absence — where the data is poor or non-existent, the different agencies employ different types of guesswork.

There is no unimpeachable raw data in which we can have confidence. There is a large cast of impeachable characters in the Climategate drama with an evident appetite for cooking the books.

And there are but two honest options for our governments to now employ. They can choose to redo the studies, with data, scientists, and a peer-review process that can be trusted. Or they can recognize that the IPCC process has been politicized from the start, and that the prima facie evidence for dangerous global warming does not meet the threshold required to prolong the scientific sham of the generation.

LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud

Read the sources for this column. 

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The End of the Line for Climate Hysteria?

David Solway
mensnewsdaily.com
December 3, 2009

Following the release into the webworld of hacked emails, computer codes, and a raft of supplementary documents recording the antics of sundry paleoclimatolgists at the University of East Anglia’s influential Climate Research Unit, it has now become ice-crystal clear not only that the world has been cooling for the last decade, but that the global warming crusade is an environmental racket of historical proportions. Many “climate skeptics” and independent researchers have long known this to be the case and have understood that the motivating factor behind this massive and unprecedented fraud is the unsavory quest for power and profit on the part of governments, corporations, and ambitious individuals, scientists as well as entrepreneurs. The evidence for data tampering and all manner of hocus-pocus was available some time ago for anyone who cared to look.

There is a rapidly growing adversarial bibliography on the subject of climate change which anyone interested in the global warming controversy might do well to consult. A partial list would include: Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, by Fred Singer and Dennis Avery; An Appeal to Reason, by Nigel Lawson; Climate Confusion, by Roy Spencer; Meltdown, by Patrick Michaels; Taken by Storm, by Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick; Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science, by Ian Plimer; Green Hell: How Environmentalists Plan to Control Your Life and What You Can Do to Stop Them, by Steven Milloy; and The Deniers, by Lawrence Solomon.

The authentic scientific expertise assembled in such books cannot honorably be ignored or discounted. The last chapter of William Gairdner’s Oh, Oh, Canada!, “Global Warming in a Nutshell,” should also be required reading. It is the most effective short account of the global warming swindle that I have yet come across. Global warmists, I might point out, are not known for playing fair. Lawrence Solomon, the subtitle of whose book is “The World-Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud,” refers to himself as “the most disinvited speaker in Canada.” In an article for the National Post, he provides a list of debates and conventions to which he was invited and subsequently disinvited once his convictions became clear. This is not surprising since in the few global warming debates that have thus far been arranged, “the skeptics have won convincingly, leading most in the doomsayer camp to boycott any debate in the future.”

The fact is, as these writers have amply demonstrated, we have become the willing dupes of a pervasive deception. To mention only a few of the red flags that have recently sprung up: Not long ago, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York perpetrated an embarrassing error — if error it was. The institute, on whose statistical data the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) depends heavily for its reports, “typed in” the September 2008 temperatures for its October assessment, concluding that global warming had risen vertiginously. The finding was accepted in the major sites and media around the world as confirmation of the global warming dogma. The institute itself admitted that it does not conduct independent verification of the data it logs, regrettably rendering some or even many of its prognostications all but useless.

Frank Tipler, professor of mathematical physics at Tulane University, had some more intriguing news for us. The Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain “has begun to eliminate the daily temperature records from its public websites,” taking a page from the Goddard Institute, which has been deleting facts and figures unfavorable to the global warming hypothesis for some time now, as well as adding “corrections” to the data “to obtain global warming.” The big lie has reached the point where it must be maintained by the omission of details, the distortion of data, and the suspicious liability to error. And as we have seen, the plot thickened when the Climate Research Unit was hacked, releasing thousands of files suggesting a covert mega-operation to propagate an anthropogenic global warming myth. “Warmist scientists,” writes James Delingpole, may “have manipulated or suppressed evidence in order to support their cause.” Tipler has recently posted yet another convincing exposé outing the CRU’s counterfeit science, concluding that “most of the evidence for global warming was simply made up.” What we are hopefully observing is the unfolding of a major Climategate scandal.

Such practices, however, even after disclosure, do not seem to operate as a deterrent to persistence, and embarrassment is easily forgotten when there is a theory to uphold. Just as the Goddard Institute continues to abide by its errors, so does the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. This despite the fact that a faulty satellite sensor reading led it to estimate that the Arctic ice cap was receding dramatically — 500,000 square kilometers of lost ice covering an area considerably larger than California. While admitting its mistake, the NSIDC did not alter its view until April 2009, when it released a graph showing, in the words of Steven Goddard, that the Arctic ice cap had “actually increased by more than the size of Texas.” From the purported loss of California to the substantive acquisition of Texas represents a significant gain for the United Ice Fields of America.

Naturally, the mainstream media have not caught on as yet, or perhaps they simply refuse to acknowledge the evidence that would serve to discredit their years of advocacy and bring them into even greater disrepute than at present. For example, my local newspaper, the Montreal Gazette for November 25, 2009, banners “Prognosis on Climate Change Is Grim,” and retails bogus data, such as “the stunning retreat of the Arctic sea ice” as well as rising temperatures and sea levels, which have been reliably challenged by a host of credible agencies, organizations, and leading scientists. The only thing that is “stunning” is the sheer duplicity of such claims. There is — big surprise! — no reference whatsoever to the damning leaks in the climate warming dikes that threaten to flood the field of study. As the pressure continued to mount, however, the same newspaper for November 28 reprinted two articles side by side, one mentioning the email controversy but soft-pedaling its consequences, the other citing the already-exploded “unprecedented meltdown” data from the NSIDC.

The global warming movement most likely did not begin as a deliberate, well-organized scam, but as an expression of genuine concern by people of good intentions. But it was soon amplified by pseudo-religious zealots with a passionate animus against the free enterprise system, such as Canada’s David Suzuki, and eventually hijacked by unscrupulous entrepreneurs intent on abusing the free enterprise system to their own advantage, such as Al Gore. David Suzuki appears to believe what he says, carefully selecting data to reinforce a position in which he has invested emotionally. Al Gore plainly does not believe what he says or practice what he preaches, often falsifying his data to strengthen a project in which he has invested financially. A UK court ruled that his global warming movie, An Inconvenient Truth, contains at least nine salient falsehoods and could not be shown in classrooms without a prior disclaimer. Gore earned $570,000 in royalties from Pasminco Ltd. for a highly toxic zinc mine on his property. Then there is the venture capital investment firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers in which Gore is a partner. KPCB has just floated a $500 million special fund for “green investments” — the same firm, incidentally, that is behind Terralliance, an “oil wildcatter,” which is about as non-green as one can get.

In any event, it wasn’t long before governments, interested corporations, and the United Nations completed the travesty. The payoff for governments involved increased control over the private lives of their citizens, using the environmental scare to further their statist agenda. Companies saw new scope for enormous profits deriving from ventures in the cap-and-trade market and so-called “clean energy” alternatives. The United Nations recognized a golden opportunity to effect a massive transfer of wealth from the industrialized Western nations to the third world in various forms of carbon subsidies.

The long-term result is not hard to see: the growing infringement on personal liberties to the convenience of the state, the enrichment of shrewd individuals and energy consortiums coupled with the gradual impoverishment of punitively taxed Western electorates, and the hypothetical solvency of corrupt, backward, and inefficient third world countries at the expense of the developed world, except for the parasites and scavengers — those whom UK science advisor Lord Christopher Monckton bluntly calls “criminals” — whose fiscal and professional bolsters would be secure.

All this should be obvious to anyone willing to undertake a little impartial research. What is most alarming, however, is the extent to which the Western public has allowed itself to be bamboozled, conscripted into the cause, and, in effect, brainwashed. It is as if we are witnessing something like a collective hallucination at work, a mass psychosis not structurally different from the apocalyptic movements and revolutionary millenarianism of the medieval world analyzed by Norman Cohn in The Pursuit of the Millennium. Only the initiating gradients are different.

For we have been pampered by the freedom, comparative prosperity, and multiplying amenities of a productive society the likes of which has never been seen before. We have too much time on our hands, more “life-enhancing” devices, services, inventions, medications, and pharmaceuticals than most of us know what to do with, more leisure than any previous culture has been able to afford its members, entertainment choices that leave us bewildered before their unstinting profusion, greater abundance in our food marts than probably all the granaries of the past combined — so that, inevitably, we have become a vast community of unthinking consumers spared the upheavals, scarcities, invasions, disruptions, and perpetual violence that has, until very recently, characterized life on the planet, as it still does in less fortunate regions of the globe.

Like the generation prior to the First World War, we have grown bored, stupefied with excess, ignorant of the blessings of plenty from which we have benefited, loath to engage in the quotidian struggle for normal existence or defend the ramparts of the “city upon a hill.” We have, in short, grown personally and culturally debilitated, a gaggle of effeminate narcissists determined to save the world but who cannot even save themselves. The upshot is baldly predictable. Having taken this rare interregnum in the war of survival for granted, we have become restless and dissatisfied, and find ourselves prone to every passing infatuation that promises a species of redemption from our own inner nullity. And environmentalism has arrived as the religion du jour to give substance and significance to the emptiness within, to rescue a cosseted populace from the apathy, lassitude, and cultural ennui that has descended upon it — and, of course, rendered it progressively exploitable by venal and power-hungry elites.

Meanwhile, from Kyoto to Copenhagen and whatever comes next, “we lay waste our powers,” to cite the poet Wordsworth in a context opposite to the one which he imagined, “we have given our hearts away, a sordid boon.” The lemming reflex may now be undeflectable. And our competitors in the international arena, who have no intention of abiding by or even signing on to international protocols and agreements in order “to save the planet,” cannot believe their luck. The Chinese are rubbing their hands with glee. The Russians are chortling in their vodka. The Indians are performing namesté in a gesture of ineffable gratitude. Latin-American caudillos and African dictators are contemplating their numbered accounts and salivating.

The climate warming thesis has about the same degree of validity as the plot of the Hollywood SF clunker The Arrival, in which space aliens land on earth and begin heating up the atmosphere by generating greenhouse gases to accommodate their biology. Those of us who have paid attention know we have been fed a line. The question is whether people will awaken in time and put an end to this insidious design — for that is what it truly is — against our welfare and very preservation, or whether we will continue to acquiesce in the end of our privileged and hard-earned “lifeworld” as we know it.

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Lawrence Solomon: Even before Climategate, the public suspected fraud

Financial Post

December 4, 2009

59% of Americans say it’s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data to support their own theories and beliefs about global warming, according to a Rasmussen survey released yesterday. 35% say it’s Very Likely and just 26% say it’s not very or not at all likely that some scientists falsified data.

“This skepticism does not appear to be the result of the recent disclosure of e-mails confirming such data falsification as part of the so-called Climategate scandal,” notes Rasmussen. “Just 20% of Americans say they’ve followed news reports about those e-mails Very Closely, while another 29% have followed them Somewhat Closely.”

Rasmussen speculates that the UN’s credibility problem undermines the credibility of the scienctists associated with it. “One reason for this skepticism may be the role the United Nations has played in promoting the global warming issue. Only 22% of Americans consider the UN to be a reliable source of information on global warming. 49% disagree and say the international organization is not reliable on that topic. 29% aren’t sure.”

The Rasmussen survey also finds just 25% of Americans believe most scientists agree on global warming.

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