Op Ed: Oba Mao in China

Lawrence Solomon
Financial Post
November 14, 2009

Most of Obama’s many foreign trips have been hurtful to American interests. Don’t expect anything to change now.

No president has travelled more than Barack Obama in his first year — his current trip to Asia is his eighth. The first seven took him nowhere. In the afterglow of each, his prestige declined as his results proved ephemeral.

His first trip, to Ottawa — a fly-in fly-out, same day affair without pomp and circumstance or announcements of substance — was among his best for doing the least harm. Trip Two, to Europe to convince his counterparts to spend spend spend their way out of the economic recession, began poorly for him when Europe’s leaders flatly refused. Trip Two ended spectacularly in Istanbul, at the Turkish Grand National Assembly, with a high-profile speech that reached out to a pivotal Muslim country.

Turkey, the Middle East’s largest economy, had been proudly secular since the 1920s when the country outlawed Islamic rule and turned decisively toward the West. At the time of Obama’s speech, in April of this year, Turkey was an ally of Israel’s, it was a member of NATO and it wanted to join the European Union. But Turkey was also a divided country, having elected a controversial government that Turks across the political spectrum suspected was closet Islamic. Many feared Turkey was teetering away from the West. Obama’s job was to keep this vital country in the Western fold.

Obama’s visit was a “statement about the importance of Turkey, not just to the United States, but to the world,” he told the Turks in an address that referred to stains on American history, and that endorsed the pro-Islamic government at the expense of the more Western, secular Turks. “When people look back on this time, let it be said of America that we extended the hand of friendship.”

Last month, it became evident that Obama had failed spectacularly in staunching the Turkish drift away from the West. Turkey abruptly cancelled a joint air exercise with Israel and NATO and revealed that it instead would be conducting joint military exercises with Syria, with which it had entered a military alliance. Syria is an ally of Iran and a country that the U.S. deems a state sponsor of terrorism. With pro-Western Turks neutered, anti-Americanism is now on the rise in Turkey. Many political commentators consider Turkey lost to the Western camp.

Obama’s next Muslim trip — to Cairo in June — was his most ambitious of all, a game-changing effort to reframe America’s relationship with the Muslim world by legitimizing the conduct of Muslim regimes while turning the screws to Israel. If he intended to embolden moderates to bring hostile parties closer together, he failed. Iran scoffed at his offer of peaceful nuclear technology, Saudi Arabia refused to make even a token goodwill gesture toward Israel, and the Palestinians hardened their demands against Israel, expecting Israel to cave under U.S. pressure. The Israeli public then lost its trust in Obama, no longer seeing him as an honest broker, let alone an ally. In a recent poll, only 4% of Israelis view Obama as pro-Israel. Neither are Israelis confident that Obama can talk Iran out of its nuclear weapons program. War with Iran is closer than ever before and peace between Israel and the Palestinians more distant.

Obama’s trip to Russia? The cooperation he hoped for on Iran never happened. He did, however, yield to Russia’s demand that the U.S. scotch plans to install a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic, former communist countries long fearful of Russian designs and now fearful of American resolve.

Obama’s other trips — to Trinidad for the Summit of the Americas and Europe again in July — accomplished little of note. His last trip, to Copenhagen to make the case for Chicago as the venue for the 2016 Olympic Games, resulted in Chicago’s immediate elimination.

Will the Asia trip mark a turnaround for Obama and be consequential for human rights or for the economy, two areas that especially involve the China portion of his trip? No sign yet that the actions of a diminished president will lead to progress on the economy. And every sign that progress won’t come on human rights, despite a letter to Obama two weeks ago from some 70 writers’ groups and human rights organizations that asked him to raise human rights issues during this visit.

A feature of Obama’s foreign visits, as with his foreign policy, has been his disregard of democracy and human rights activists and his deference to authoritarian leaders. In neither of his trips to the Islamic world did he disturb despots to defend women’s rights, civil rights or press freedoms. Neither did he disturb the status quo in Russia or at the Summit of the Americas, where he gave Hugo Chavez a photo-op. Neither has he defended democracy and human rights when at home: He refused to side with the protesters in the streets of Teheran after Iran’s fraudulent election. He even refused to see the Dalai Lama — the first U.S. president in almost 20 years to shrink from doing so.

In China, human rights activists are now preparing to be rounded up or subjected to house arrest — this is the government’s standard operating procedure in advance of visits from foreign dignitaries who symbolize democratic values. Many activists have long been in jail, among them Liu Xiaobo, a courageous writer and human rights activist who was widely considered to be on the shortlist to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009.

Many expect that the Chinese government will release Liu as a good will gesture to mark Obama’s trip. This would be an especially fitting move given Barack Obama’s next scheduled trip, in December: to Oslo to pick up the Nobel Peace Prize that was denied Liu Xiaobo.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute.

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UK reaches consensus on climate change

Financial Post

Supporters of the UK’s three major political parties – Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal-Democrats – don’t often agree but on one major issue they are of one mind -all agree that humans can’t be blamed for global warming. Only 45% of Labour voters, 38% of Conservative voters, and 47% of Liberal-Democrats, believe global warming is man-made.

This all-party consensus is also an all-age consensus: Only 42% of 18-34 years, 41% of 35-54 years olds, and 42% of those 55 and older agree that humans can’t be blamed for global warming. And it is an all-gender consensus: 40% of men and 43% of women agree.
All parties and all age groups also agree that global warming isn’t the most serious problem that the UK faces, including among many who believe that man is causing global warming. All told, 72% believe that other problems are more serious than global warming or that global warming isn’t serious at all. Among Labour voters, the figure is 68% compared to 78% for Conservatives and 68% for Liberal-Democrats.

This polling data was prepared for the UK newspaper, The Times, by the polling firm of Populus. It is based on interviews with 1504 adults taken between Nov. 4 and Nov 6.

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‘A boon for New Brunswick’

(Nov. 13, 2009) Clearwater Seafoods director says proposed sale of NB Power to Hydro-Québec would help province retain and attract business. Continue reading

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May the Brightest Bulb Win

(Nov. 13, 2009), In 2012, the incandescent light bulb will be banned in Canada. Which new bulb will win the race to replace it? Continue reading

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May the Brightest Bulb Win

Drew Halfnight
AOL.ca
November 13, 2009

In 2012, the incandescent light bulb will be banned in Canada. Which new bulb will win the race to replace it?

For years, environmentalists have trashed the old-style incandescent light bulb as an energy hog, a fire hazard and a confounded hunk of glass and tin that can’t be recycled.

“The obvious thing to say is that incandescent technology needs to be dumped and dumped fast,” says Dave Martin, climate and energy coordinator for Greenpeace Canada.

In 2007, Canada got on board. Along with Australia, the U.S. and the E.U., the country passed a law effectively banning the old frosted 60-watt standard.

So began the race to reinvent the light bulb.

Taking the early lead was the compact fluorescent lamp, which uses 75 per cent less wattage and lasts 10 times longer than the standard incandescent bulb. The iconic white spirals sprouted up in promotions and giveaways in hardware stores across Canada. David Suzuki was seen hawking compact fluorescents on billboards and in TV spots, and Project Porchlight distributed over a million of the alternative bulbs in Ontario, British Columbia and the Yukon.

Despite this concerted campaign, Canadians have been slow to adopt fluorescents, or any other alternative to the traditional bulb.

What gives?

The fact is, there is still no definitive alternative to the incandescent light bulb.

Compact fluorescents, the early favourite, have proved controversial for several reasons. Consumers have complained about their odd shape, their piercing brightness and their price.

Norman Rubin of Toronto-based think tank Energy Probe remembers when he first installed an earlier version of the compact fluorescent.

“We all went ‘God help us, who wants to sit under this light?’” he said. “We hated them.”

But today, all three problems have been addressed, says Pierre Sadik, senior policy advisor for the David Suzuki Foundation, an early supporter of the compact fluorescent alternative.

“They put the spiral within a glass bulb,” he said. “And they’re making bulbs that have a warm glow to them.”

Compact fluorescents, which cost more to manufacture than traditional bulbs, list at about $5-15 per bulb. Sadik said that price will dive once the federal ban takes effect in 2012.

The chief objection to compact fluorescents, however, is that they contain toxic mercury, which is released into the air and soil when the bulbs are broken. Only about a fifth of compact fluorescents are recycled, raising the prospect of millions of toxic bulbs being crushed up in landfills.

Reports have also surfaced that hundreds of Chinese factory workers have been hospitalized due to mercury exposure from working with compact fluorescents.

Martin of Greenpeace says the environmental cost is worth the gain.

“The mercury levels in compact fluorescents are extremely low. I’m not saying we shouldn’t be concerned about it. It just means we have to keep innovating.”

Kirsten Ostling of the David Suzuki Foundation also points out that the mercury pollution produced by coal fire plants is on a much higher scale than that produced by bulb pollution.

Sadik says the spiral bulbs are likely only a temporary solution. Light-emitting diodes or LEDs, he says, are the beacon on the horizon of lighting technology.

New LED bulbs last 35 to 50 times longer than traditional bulbs and function on a fraction of the electricity. Plus, they’re recyclable.

One business listing of LED lighting manufacturers indicates no fewer than 29 Canadian companies are already capitalizing on the emerging technology.

For now, the main barrier to LED lights remains price. But Sadik says the same forces that pushed the price of compact fluorescents down will soon will work their magic for compact fluorescents.

“Invariably, the price of all of these new technologies comes down over the course of time, after early adopters start buying them and putting them in place.”

Rubin also puts his faith in the market, calling the government’s ban on incandescents and its attempt to push compact fluorescents a “nightmare.” But he is more skeptical than Sadik about the future success of LED technology.

“Some of their claimed efficiency advantage over fluorescents is based on misleading testing,” Rubin says. “LEDs have directional light. Most of the bulbs we want are multi-directional, not directional. They’re only cheap if you want one of them at a tiny intensity.”

In the meantime, several upstart lighting companies are joining the race to design the next big bulb.

This is not surprising, considering the stakes involved. Canadians use an average of 26.4 bulbs to light their homes. One bright idea could mean preeminence in the global residential lighting market.

One U.S. company, Vu1, is working on a mercury-free model for recessed ceiling fixtures that uses electron-stimulated phosphor. It will have six times the lifespan of an incandescent and cost no more than a high-end compact fluorescent bulb (about $20), according to media reports.

Other companies, especially in the U.S., are re-visitng the incandescent bulb. General Electric in 2007 introduced a high-efficiency incandescent bulb, which was said to compare favourably to fluorescent lamps in lumens per watt. Deposition Sciences in Santa Rosa, Calif., found a way to turn the excess heat produced by incandescents into more light. Scientists at the University of Rochester have improved the efficiency of standard bulbs by applying a laser to the wire filament. Other companies have developed “eco-incandescents” that use 70 per cent as much energy as standard incandescents.

Meanwhile, environmentalists are impatient for the day the last incandescent bulb is removed from store shelves.

“It’s been excruciating to see how slow governments are to push change. Typically they’re moving at glacial speed,” says Martin. “There’s no reason we should maintain this technology that’s more space-heating than lighting.”

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Aldyen Donnelly: About Denmark’s clean economy

Denmark’s economic recovery—from the financial crisis that hit Scandinavia in 1990—over the last 2 decades is anything but a transition to a green economy. "Experts" who remark only on Danish green technology exports are failing to tell the whole story.

It is true that Denmark consumes less imported coal than it did in 1990 (Denmark has no domestic coal reserves). But 50% of Danish electricity, steam and heat supply still derives from the combustion of imported coal.

In reality, the Danish economy is currently much more dependent on fossil fuel exports than any time in Danish history. It is true that the value of Danish clean electricity and electricity generation technologies has grown substantially between 1990 and 2009. But Danish oil, gas and petroleum product exports grew much faster.  

In the 1st quarter of 2009, the value of Danish fossil fuel and fossil fuel production technology exports was 7.22 times the value of Danish electricity and electricity technology exports. And that is even though I included technologies used to convert fossil fuels to electricity in the "clean" electricity account, not the fossil fuel account, in the table below.  

Danish natural demand for gas quadrupled over the period, but domestic production of natural gas only doubled and the Danish natural gas reserves are on a rather fast decline. At the end of 2008, the value of Danish fossil fuel and fossil fuel production technology exports was 17 times what it was in 1990 and 5.6 times the value of electricity and "clean tech" exports.

After oil and gas prices crashed in 2008, the value of Danish fossil fuel-related exports was still some 7 times the value of Danish electricity and clean tech exports.

So Danes might be consuming less oil at home. But their economy and incomes are more dependent on fossil fuel exports than ever before. This is a more complete picture than is often presented, I find.

I downloaded 100% of the data in these tables from Denmark Statistics.

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'A boon for New Brunswick'

Quentin Casey
The Telegraph-Journal
November 13, 2009

Clearwater Seafoods director says proposed sale of NB Power to Hydro-Québec would help province retain and attract business.

HALIFAX – One of the region’s top entrepreneurs says the sale of NB Power, combined with recent tax cuts, would be a "boon" for New Brunswick industry.

On Thursday, fisheries magnate John Risley said the proposed sale of NB Power to Hydro-Québec would help New Brunswick both retain and attract business.

That’s because the tentative deal, if signed, would see industrial power rates in New Brunswick reduced by as much as 30 per cent to match those in Quebec.

In an interview with the Telegraph-Journal, Risley said that rate reduction would couple nicely with the Graham government’s pledge to cut the general corporate income tax rate from 12 per cent to 8 per cent by 2012.

"That will definitely be a big boon for New Brunswick business," said Risley, director of Clearwater Seafoods Limited Partnership (TSX:CLR.UN), the Halifax-based seafood producer.

"You guys now have the second lowest tax rates in the country, behind Alberta. And now you’re going to have lower energy costs," he continued.

"If you’re an international or national business looking to set up in Atlantic Canada, you’re going to look at the cost of doing business. And right now New Brunswick is positioned to take advantage."

Risley, who founded Clearwater in 1976, said the industrial power rate cut will most benefit the struggling pulp and paper industry – a huge consumer of electricity.

He also said he doesn’t buy into fears that Hydro-Québec will gouge New Brunswick rate powers for the benefit of Quebecers.

Instead, Risley predicts savings on the horizon.

"I’m sure there will be huge savings in the consolidation of these two businesses, which will flow back to shareholders and customers. That’s what you generally do in business when you expand," he said, following a breakfast speech at the Halifax Club, a private downtown business club.

"I think it’s crazy that every province thinks it needs to have its own utility. That’s absolute nonsense."

Risley isn’t the first to trumpet the economic benefits of the proposed deal, which would see most of the public utility handed over to Hydro-Québec – in exchange for lower power rates and a wiping of NB Power’s $4.75-billion debt.

Jean-Claude Savoie, president of Saint-Quentin-based Groupe Savoie Inc., recently said the proposed deal would make companies across the province more competitive.

Savoie said his firm will save roughly $260,000 a year on electricity, allowing him to invest in upgrades at his sawmills and offer more security to his 500-plus employees.

"The savings would allow us to invest in new technologies and to ensure our long-term survival," he said.

Energy analyst Norm Rubin, of the Toronto-based lobby group Energy Probe, previously said the reduction in industrial rates would make it easier for energy-intensive businesses to set up shop in the province.

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Climate change concern declines – 8 per cent decline since 2008

(Nov. 10, 2009) During the past year there has been an eight per cent decline in Canadian concern for climate change, yet students continue to be highly active in advocacy, according to a Climate Confidence Monitor survey released November 2. Continue reading

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Climate change concern declines – 8 per cent decline since 2008

Kyla Mandel
The McGill Tribune
November 10, 2009

During the past year there has been an eight per cent decline in Canadian concern for climate change, yet students continue to be highly active in advocacy, according to a Climate Confidence Monitor survey released November 2.

26 per cent of Canadians "consider global warming among their chief concerns," according to Lawrence Solomon, executive director of Energy Probe.

"The level of concern has been dropping and dropping substantially," said Solomon. Both Solomon and Maggie Knight, the students’ society environment commissioner, suggested that there are various reasons for the decline, including the economic crisis.

"You can afford to be concerned about things like the environment … when [you] and your family are ok," said Knight. "But when people lose their jobs and don’t have enough money and are worried about making ends meet, then it’s obvious that people tend to make the choice not to buy fair trade or not to buy organic, they just do what they need to do to survive."

However, Solomon suggested that another reason for this decline in concern may be that many of the warnings that global warming activists have been making for many years simply haven’t come to pass. He said that both Arctic and Antarctic ice has not been melting, but rather increasing.

"Polar bear populations have been increasing," he said. "The globe stopped warming about 10 years ago, it seems to be cooling now."

Solomon is also concerned about the political implications this sort of occurrence could have.

"It’s quite possible that politicians will stop beating the drum of global warming," he said. "If they see that the public has lost interest in the subject, politicians will lose interest in the subject."

Knight also warned that while the youth of today will still be present in 2050 – a benchmark year that climate scientists are looking at – some politicians may not, which could also factor into their apathy.

"There is a lot of fear around climate change, which makes sense – there are some scary things that could happen," said Knight. However she also stressed that the many environmental groups present at McGill are working hard to provide solutions.

"By providing all these resources people are finding that it’s less and less hard and that there’s more and more of a cultural shift toward sustainable community," she said.

Arielle Jaffe, also a SSMU environment commissioner, said that as the connection between environment and health becomes more apparent, interest will likely increase.

"There is a growing understanding of the relationship of climate change and environmental health to every other aspect of their life and it’s definitely being shown in the interest of involvement in groups that previously had nothing to do with environmental activism," she said.

There are over 33 environmental groups at McGill, ranging from Environmental Law to Gorilla Composting and Organic Campus.

"I think you can see the power of the growth of the movement on campus in the fact that McGill is becoming more and more active on sort of a national theme," said Knight. "We need to work from within institutions and to not just be people that can be dismissed as hippies and granola eaters but people who are really concerned about the future, and the future of their children."

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Numbers racket: Sources

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

An Analysis of the Review of the IPCC 4AR WG I Report by John McLean

The IPCC can’t count its “expert scientists”: – Author and reviewer numbers are wrong by John McLean

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