Leonard Weinstein, ScD
April 27, 2009
The views shown here are my personal ones. They were developed by my independent review of the literature and data regarding Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).
It is not obvious what the ideal temperature and CO2 level should be for mankind. We tend to assume that the average of whatever has occurred in the recent past is the ideal level, since we have adjusted to that level, and changes from that level can cause disruptions in living conditions and activities. There is no argument that there have been significant temperature and CO2 (and Methane) increases in recent years. The issue is whether these were possibly related and were due to human activity, and whether this is a potentially significant problem.
It is clear that we get excited at anything different that happens in a time period that spans a large fraction of a lifetime, even if it is not unusual compared to time periods more distant in the past. In order to examine the AGW claims, temperature data covering the last several thousand years was examined for widely separated ice core and ocean sediment core sources. Conclusions from these curves are that the temperature goes up and down 1.50C to 20C about every thousand years. The present increase is not higher than several other times in the period examined, and the speed of change is typical. Curves can be seen here: While we clearly have recently experienced a period of warming, the last several years have actually been dropping! There is no indication that the period of warming was unusual based on comparison over a reasonable time scale! If the present were unusual, then all previous times of rapid change and high levels would also have to be unusual, and where is the anthropogenic causes for those times?
In order to prove a theory, specific predictions need to be made that are based on the claims of the theory, and the predictions then need to happen. While the occurrence of the predicted events is not proof positive of a theory, they increase the believability of the claims. However, if the predictions are not observed, this tends to indicate the theory is flawed or even wrong. Some predictions and conclusions are shown here. It has become quite clear to the author that the AGW theory is flawed. Human produced greenhouse gases almost certainly have affected the global temperature somewhat, but the evidence clearly shows that contribution is small compared to natural causes, and not a problem.