John Spears
Toronto Star
June 25, 2003

Ontario can expect another long, anxious summer of watching the electricity system get stretched to the limit until several laid-up nuclear reactors return to service, says the agency that runs the province’s power grid.

"Until the nuclear units return to service, Ontario faces a summer supply situation similar to the one experienced last year," says the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) in the latest revision of its 18-month forecast.

And the report has more bad news for the troubled Pickering A nuclear station.

One of its four mothballed units is supposed to return to service this summer. But the second isn’t expected back "during the time frame of this report" – which means it probably won’t be back before the end of 2004.

Ontario Power Generation has been reluctant to comment on the schedules for Pickering A in recent months. But previously the company had always said that once the first unit was back in service, the next unit would follow within nine months, or by spring 2004. The IMO doesn’t expect to see the second unit in service even by December, 2004.

The Pickering A refit is currently estimated to cost $2.5 billion – $1.2 billion over budget.

Tom Adams, executive director of Energy Probe, described the new forecast as alarming: "The proper term for this is crisis."

Ontario avoided blackouts and brownouts last summer by the skin of its teeth. Demand for power soared as hot weather prompted heavy use of air conditioners. Local generators couldn’t supply the market, and heavy power imports – sometimes at astronomical prices – were needed to keep the province’s lights on.

This summer was supposed to be better.

Two laid-up units of the Bruce A nuclear generating station were expected to return to service by the end of June, but are now forecast to return only in late July or August. The first Pickering A unit also is now aiming for August.

That leaves a gap in July, the IMO says.

Importing power from what the IMO calls interconnected markets such as Quebec, New York and Manitoba isn’t a fool-proof solution when local generators fail to supply the market, the report notes.

That’s because there is a limit to how much power the wires connecting Ontario to its neighbours can carry without burning out.

If the weather gets very hot this summer, or very cold next winter, "there are circumstances under which reliance on interconnected supply would be stretched to the limits," the IMO warns.

In addition, power reserves are likely to be below recommended levels for extended periods. This week’s hot weather continued yesterday to remind planners of the strains on the system.

Hot weather pushed the peak demand above 23,000 megawatts, which is high but still far from the record of 25,414 megawatts set last year.

Meanwhile, a large generating unit broke down overnight Monday and remained out of service all day yesterday, underlining the danger of unexpected outages.

Under electricity market rules, the identity of the unit is not published.