James L. Jones' energy views worry some environmentalists

Tom Hamburger
Los Angeles Times
December 2, 2008

James L. Jones is Obama’s new national security advisor. But he leads an institute that has challenged global warming.

Reporting from Washington — When President-elect Barack Obama introduced James L. Jones Jr. as his national security advisor Monday, he emphasized the retired Marine general’s understanding of "the connection between energy and national security."

Obama sees that as a plus, but some environmental groups and global warming activists view Jones’ environmental record with suspicion.

Jones will not be responsible for environmental policy, but he has said energy is a vital national security issue. It affects domestic economic stability and international geopolitical relationships, particularly in the oil-rich Middle East.

Jones sits on the board of Chevron Corp., and since March 2007 has been president and chief executive of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for 21st Century Energy, which has been criticized by environmental groups.

"They have a reprehensible record," said Frank O’Donnell, the outspoken leader of Clean Air Watch, of the institute led by Jones.

The institute calls for the immediate expansion of domestic oil and gas production, nuclear energy and clean-coal technology, in addition to investment in renewable and alternative energy sources.

O’Donnell criticized institute reports under Jones that challenged the use of the Clean Air Act to combat global warming and the right of states, such as California, to impose environmental standards that go beyond those set by the federal government.

"Since global warming is a security threat, this selection raises a real eyebrow," O’Donnell said in an e-mail. "Will Jones be predisposed to compromise the new administration’s environmental agenda, both at home and in the international arena? . . . Stay tuned."

O’Donnell said the U.S. Chamber of Commerce had "the worst track record" of any business advocacy group when it came to global warming.

Chamber officials dismissed concerns that they represented extreme pro-industry views on climate change.

"If you look at our reports, one thing you will see is balance," said David Chavern, the chamber’s chief operating officer. "The general is a balanced, rational guy. That will serve him well as national security advisor."

The nonprofit institute is an arm of the chamber, the country’s leading business lobby. Chamber officials declined to reveal the budget or who finances the institute.

Today, an institute executive will hold a chamber-sponsored discussion about global warming featuring Lawrence Solomon, the author of a book questioning whether there is a scientific consensus on climate change.

The book, "The Deniers," will be the subject of a teleconference, which will include a scientist from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change taking the opposite view. The discussion will be moderated by Stephen Eule, who works with Jones at the institute.

Many environmental advocates contacted Monday were reluctant to discuss Obama’s selection of Jones. Previously, environmental scientists from the Natural Resources Defense Council and other organizations have knocked the chamber and the institute. The chamber opposed global warming legislation backed by Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John W. Warner (R-Va.).

Daniel Lashof, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate center, said Monday that in its official statements "the institute failed to make a clear call for action on global warming." But he said Obama had "made such a call, so I am not concerned that Obama is going to change his position on that."

In a "transition plan for securing America’s energy future" prepared for Obama, the institute called for laws that would promote nuclear power, encourage drilling on federal land and offshore areas under a moratorium. The report also called for Congress to make clear that the Clean Air Act would not be used to regulate greenhouse gases, and to make sure that federal rules preempted state regulations, a long-standing position among business organizations.

Those two points were of some concern to California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, who coincidentally urged the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday to use the Clean Air Act to take action against global warming.

"After eight years of foot-dragging, it is time for the EPA to reverse its shameful inaction on global warming and use its authority under the Clean Air Act to combat dangerous climate change," Brown said in a letter to the EPA.

In an interview, Brown said the appointment of a chief executive of an organization that opposed his viewpoints was not terribly concerning.

"You want to have talent and wisdom among your advisors, and [Jones] is bringing some key qualities" to the Obama administration, he said. Still, "the federal government has been a laggard for decades, and the last thing we want to do is destroy the innovative contributions of states like California. The labs of the state innovate often in the face of congressional paralysis."

In a speech last fall introducing an institute report, Jones acknowledged the conflicts that emerged when energy policies were set.

"Energy is a vital national security issue," he said in remarks posted on the institute’s website. "Every industry, think tank and advocacy group has its interest, but everyone is going to have to step back and look at the bigger picture. The institute believes that an affordable, diverse and secure energy supply is fundamental to our security and to the expansion of economic opportunity and prosperity. We are equally convinced that this energy can be secured while making further progress in the fight for environmental quality and significant contributions to the management of climate change."

Asked about the concerns expressed by environmental advocates, an Obama spokesman referred to the president-elect’s statements at the Monday news conference introducing Jones and other members of the national security team.

"I assembled this team because I’m a strong believer in strong personalities and strong opinions," Obama said. "I think that’s how the best decisions are made. One of the dangers in a White House, based on my reading of history, is that you get wrapped up in group think, and everybody agrees with everything and there’s no discussion and there are no dissenting views. So I’m going to be welcoming a vigorous debate inside the White House. But understand, I will be setting policy as president."


Hamburger is a writer in our Washington bureau.

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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Author Series presents The Deniers

December 2, 2008

Lawrence Solomon
The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so

December 2nd
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Conference call only

On December 2nd NCF held a conference call discussion with Lawrence Solomon, author of The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so. Solomon participated in a moderated discussion with Jay Gulledge, Ph.D, Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

A recording of the call will be available soon.

Lawrence Solomon is a world-renowned environmentalist, activist, author, and columnist for the National Post.

Solomon was previously a columnist at The Globe and Mail, and has been published in several other publications such as the National Review Online, CBS News, and the Wall Street Journal. Solomon is a founder and managing director of the Energy Probe Research Foundation. The foundation works with citizen groups around the world to stop environmentally destructive projects and to promote sound development.

Click here to access a document that outlines several resources for understanding the issues raised in by Mr. Solomon in The Deniers. This resource guide has been provided by Dr. Jay Gulledge. The views expressed in this resource are his own and do not represent those of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce or the National Chamber Foundation.

********************************************************************************************************

Book Synoposis

According to Solomon, he began his search for reputable dissident scientists and published the findings in his column in the National Post which began in November 2006. The book is based on these series of articles, and questions the assertion that the “science is settled” as claimed by advocates of the “consensus theory” and attacks the “alarmist” view on global warming.

Among the issues raised and alleged flaws presented are:

  • The Hockey stick controversy;
  • The Stern Review;
  • Hurricane frequency and intensity; the lack of signs of global warming in Antarctica’s climate;
  • Reservations on the predictability of climate models and its lack of falsifiability;
  • The Singer-Revelle-Gore controversy;
  • The alternate solar variation theory, regarding the hypotheses of the warming being driven by the interaction of the solar wind with cosmic rays affecting cloud formation.
Posted in Costs, Benefits and Risks, Energy Probe News | Leave a comment

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Author Series presents The Deniers

December 2, 2008

Lawrence Solomon
The
Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming
Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful
to do so

December 2nd
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
Conference call only

On December 2nd NCF held a conference call discussion with Lawrence Solomon, author of The
Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming
Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful
to do so
. Solomon participated in a moderated discussion with Jay Gulledge, Ph.D, Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

A recording of the call will be available soon.

Lawrence Solomon is a world-renowned environmentalist, activist, author, and columnist for the National Post. 

Solomon was previously a columnist at The Globe and Mail, and has been
published in several other publications such as the National Review Online,
CBS News, and the Wall Street Journal. Solomon is a founder and managing
director of the Energy Probe Research Foundation. The foundation works with
citizen groups around the world to stop environmentally destructive projects
and to promote sound development.

Click here to access a document that outlines several resources for understanding the issues raised in by Mr. Solomon in The Deniers. This
resource guide has been provided by Dr. Jay Gulledge. The views expressed
in this resource are his own and do not represent those of the U.S. Chamber
of Commerce or the National Chamber Foundation.

********************************************************************************************************

Book Synoposis

According to Solomon, he began his search for reputable dissident scientists
and published the findings in his column in the National Post which began
in November 2006. The book is based on these series of articles, and questions
the assertion that the "science is settled" as claimed by advocates of the
"consensus theory" and attacks the "alarmist" view on global warming.

Among the issues raised and alleged flaws presented are:

  • the Hockey stick controversy;
  • the Stern Review;
  • hurricane frequency and intensity; the lack of signs of global warming in Antarctica’s climate;
  • reservations on the predictability of climate models and its lack of falsifiability;
  • the Singer-Revelle-Gore controversy; 
  • the alternate solar variation theory, regarding the hypotheses of
    the warming being driven by the interaction of the solar wind with cosmic
    rays affecting cloud formation.
Posted in Energy Probe News | Leave a comment

Blowing in the wind

Christopher Pollon
BC Business Online
December 1, 2008

There are few places on Earth where the forces of nature are on such violent, chaotic display as Hecate Strait, the narrow stretch of shallow ocean that separates the Queen Charlotte Islands from the B.C. coast. Winter low-pressure systems born over Alaska can push winds to 160 km/h, driving waves over 30 metres high; opposing northeasterly winds gather similar speeds as they funnel across the strait hemmed in by the Queen Charlottes and the jagged mainland. When two such weather systems collide, amid tides that can rise and fall seven metres, anything in their path is trapped between a hammer and anvil.

More than a mariner’s worst nightmare, the malevolent weather is also a potential windfall source of clean and infinite electricity, capable of powering at least 120,000 homes in the near future, including those on the diesel-dependent Queen Charlottes. The NaiKun Offshore Wind Energy Project, in planning since 2001, could soon see up to 110 90-metre-high towers rammed into the seabed off the eastern shores of Graham Island, each supporting a 220-tonne turbine head fixed with rotors spanning 100 metres. The company envisions five phases in the next decade, with construction of the first 320-megawatt phase to commence in 2012.

Over the past six years, the project has emerged as a darling of environmentalists, First Nations and B.C. politicians. Parent company NaiKun Wind Energy Group Inc. has attracted a high-profile team of private- and public-sector talent to its executive and board. At the 2007 Pacific Economic Summit in Vancouver,
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell posed for a highly publicized photo op at NaiKun, one of only two B.C. businesses selected for a visit. Much more significantly, the project has progressed to the stage where a 40-year energy purchase agreement (EPA) from BC Hydro is now within view, pending a decision barely half a year away.

But despite the momentum, the gulf between NaiKun’s blueprint and build-out is today as wide as the white-knuckle boat ride between Prince Rupert and Sandspit. The prices of steel and fuel, as well as the scarcity of key components and specialty construction services, have dampened the fortunes of the wind industry globally. Capital costs have skyrocketed, and even in Europe, where wind power is a generation ahead of B.C., as much as $120 billion of offshore projects based around England, Germany and Denmark have recently been thrown into limbo. “Wind energy is something that has really caught people’s imagination, the idea that you put up windmills and get energy for free,” says John Calvert, political scientist, author and former policy analyst for the B.C. government. “But it’s not that simple. Wind is much more costly than most realize and can only be utilized if government and B.C. ratepayers are willing to accept a very significant cost premium.”

Former BC Hydro executive Michael Margolick first met Michael Altman in the late 1970s, when Altman was running a tiny Vancouver-based oil and gas exploration company called Uniterre Resources Ltd. (the precursor to NaiKun). In 2001 they got to talking about wind power. Both saw the potential of the resource in the Hecate Strait, which had the three prerequisites for viable wind power: a powerful, unobstructed wind resource; a shallow, sandy seabed that would minimize the cost of construction; and a nearby grid connection on the B.C. mainland.

It was not until 2002, however, that the company formed a partnership with Swiss industrial conglomerate ABB to develop a wind farm on the site – a deal formalized when then-prime minister Jean Chrétien led a Team Canada delegation to Berlin for the signing of a “ceremonial contract” announcing a provincial/federal feasibility study on the project. At the time, Uniterre (which was trading for 19 cents on the Canadian Venture Exchange) claimed the project would break seabed by 2004, at a total cost of $1.5 billion; company chair and Liberal senator Jack Austin cited Alberta, the U.S. Pacific northwest and even Alcan’s Kitimat smelter as potential customers. But many observers were skeptical, given the paucity of details about logistics and financing. “Unless this project draws in great amounts of government subsidies, it’s going to blow over,” Energy Probe’s Tom Adams told the National Post in the wake of the Berlin ceremony.

The projected 2004 build-out date came and passed, and by 2006 the company changed its corporate structure and name, from Uniterre Resources to NaiKun Wind Energy Group. Details of the project had changed too – construction of Phase 1 of a five-phase, 1,750-megawatt wind farm would now begin in 2010. Today the company is led by Paul Taylor, ex-CEO of ICBC, who joined NaiKun as president and CEO last spring; he is joined by former executives of BC Gas, BC Hydro, SNC-Lavalin and many other.

NaiKun’s power generation subsidiary NaiKun Wind Generating Inc. has also
formed a 50-50 partnership for the first phase of the project with Calgary’s
Enmax Corp., which brings wind project construction experience and sharing
of risk. (This subsidiary is currently seeking a third partner.) Under this
new regime, NaiKun is now focused on its most important milestone: the signing
of a 40-year EPA with BC Hydro. Simply put, a successfully signed EPA guarantees
that BC Hydro will buy the power generated by the project. “In B.C. today,
the EPAs are the market,” says Calvert. “If you don’t have an EPA backed
by Hydro, the banks would see the credit on these projects as being junk-bond
level.”

NaiKun is currently preparing a bid for BC Hydro’s latest Clean Power Call request for proposal (RFP) process, which came in August – the sixth such call by BC Hydro since 2001. In that time, 60 EPAs have been signed, but just 19 have advanced from the development stage to operation. This dismal attrition rate has spurred BC Hydro to change the way it evaluates bids in its latest power call, offering NaiKun a “negotiated RFP” as opposed to a tender. A negotiated RFP “allows BC Hydro to say, ‘You might not be the cheapest producer, but we want to be in wind power so we are willing to pay more for it,’ ” explains Salman Partners’ David Brill, a veteran green-energy analyst. “They are in effect saying, ‘We want to subsidize this industry so that we can get into wind.’ ”

Exactly how much of a premium BC Hydro might have to pay for wind power is not certain. What is clear is that offshore wind is more expensive than other “green” options. A report commissioned by BC Hydro in February 2008 put the potential cost of offshore wind power at between $135 and $250 per megawatt hour, as much as double the estimates for onshore wind power, and even further above the cost of power generated by well-situated run-of-river projects. Calvert says that the failure of initiatives such as the Holberg onshore wind project near Port Hardy (see “Wasted Energy,” p. 114) has moved BC Hydro to offer negotiated RFPs because, based on price alone, these projects would stand little chance of getting purchase agreements and thus financing. “They’re selling their energy exclusively to BC Hydro because nobody else is prepared to pay the kind of money Hydro is paying,” says Calvert. “So we’re not only guaranteeing the loans indirectly through these contracts; we’re paying a premium on top of that for the fact that the private sector is the one borrowing the money, and that’s built straight into the price.”

In his 2007 book Liquid Gold: Energy Privatization in British Columbia, Calvert writes that “generous” EPAs are just one way the provincial government is softening the uneconomic cost of wind. Others include virtually free access to the best wind sites, help in obtaining environmental and land-use approvals, PST and local property tax exemptions, and access to publicly funded research by BC Hydro dating back to 1981. And because wind is intermittent – wind speed is usually not adequate to fully utilize the generators, so even the best wind farms can only operate at between 30 and 40 per cent of installed capacity – the quality and supply of the power BC Hydro is buying from wind farms is inconsistent and vastly inferior to that of our large heritage dams.

B.C.’s energy minister Rich Neufeld bristles at the suggestion that BC Hydro will pay a huge premium for wind when B.C. already generates power from cheaper clean sources. “If we were to go out and buy the most expensive energy, when we already
generate over 90 per cent clean, and could buy cheaper stuff, what would the public say? How much hell do you think I get every time the rates go up?” Moving forward, Neufeld says, B.C. is going to need at least 30,000 gigawatt hours of additional capacity over the next 25 years, of which at least 50 per cent will have to get built. “We’re getting independent power producers bidding into energy calls so that we can keep the lights on,” says Neufeld. “But let me be clear: we want competition.”

In early 2007, representatives of the Haida Nation approached NaiKun with some tough questions about the wind farm. With the turbines sited in their territorial waters, sending all of their power to Vancouver, what was in it for them? NaiKun replied with Haida­Link, a plan to connect the Queen Charlottes to the mainland grid via the wind farm, replacing a diesel power system that spews about 26,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases each year. As envisioned, the NaiKun wind project would power the Queen Charlottes 90 per cent of the time, and when required the islands could access the mainland grid.

If it moves forward, the HaidaLink project will be financed and majority-owned by the Haida Nation itself and built and operated jointly by the Haida Power Authority and NaiKun. “This is Haida territory, so it is essential that they are part of this,” acknowledges Paul Taylor. “Without their support, this simply is not going to happen.”

The Haida have also been included directly in the harmonized federal and provincial environmental assessment of the project. NaiKun is currently engaged in numerous studies gauging the project’s impact on everything from large marine mammals to crabs on the ocean floor. By early 2009, the results of those studies will be submitted for review to three governments, including the Haida. With environmental approvals and a potential EPA in hand as early as next year, the company would be in a position to put down deposits and start ordering equipment – the next step toward generating both electricity and revenue. (Haida Nation leader Guujaw and the Haida Power Authority did not respond to interview requests for this story.)

The logistical challenges of building an offshore wind farm are many. In September 2007, a barge ship at work installing an offshore wind farm in the Irish Sea was rocked by a freak storm; the crew had to be plucked by rescue helicopters, the barge was severely damaged and the project was delayed seven months because no other ships could be found. Potential disasters aside, there is also the challenge of finding and installing turbines, transformers, submarine transmission cable and securing a whole host of specialized engineering and construction services, all within a tight time frame watched nervously by investors. “It’s been more difficult to build offshore projects than everyone thought,” Goeran Lundgren, head of Nordic power generation at Stockholm-based Vattenfall AB told Bloomberg News in May. “I don’t think we’ll see any large-scale offshore parks until we’ve taken a few big development steps.”

Lundgren’s comments came after the May announcement by Royal Dutch Shell PLC that it was selling its 33 per cent stake in the 1,000-megawatt, 341-turbine London Array project off the southeast coast of England. Shell cited concerns over the rising costs of materials, including steel and turbines. Closer to home, the Dokie Wind Farm near Fort St. John – planned to be completed in early 2009 – confirmed this past August that cost overruns and “revised wind energy estimates” would necessitate the company raising $50 million in order to complete construction.

NaiKun is facing many of the same cost and supply-chain pressures and must also battle for scarce components and services from established European companies with proven experience building offshore projects. “It’s one thing to bid a project; it’s another thing to get the turbines,” says Sean Whittaker, vice-president of policy at the Canadian Wind Energy Association. “Just try to get a turbine today from General Electric. . . . They can’t put you on the order books until 2011 at the earliest.” To NaiKun’s credit, the company has signed a memorandum of understanding with Siemens Canada Ltd. to study transmission lines, and the company is currently in negotiation with at least four turbine manufacturers. To ensure that it can get the required jack-up barge for installation, NaiKun is exploring refitting ships used for offshore oil and gas and surveying global ship manufacturers to ensure they are top of queue when new ships appear.

Paul Taylor says that NaiKun’s advantage over most wind projects, when it comes to competing for scarce equipment and components, is its size. “We can say to a company, ‘You will be our turbine and transmission partner for the whole 10-year, five-phase build-out at 200 megawatts a year.’ ” He notes that Europe is the hotbed for the offshore wind business, but the companies active there aspire to expand globally. “Our pitch to them has been that we are a perfect anchor point for their North American strategy.”

Siemens Canada is a prime example. NaiKun is working with the German giant’s Canadian subsidiary and is looking to it as a potential source for transmission expertise, turbines and possibly more. Bill Smith, senior vice-president of Siemens Energy, explains from his Ontario office that his company can provide “integrated” services to a company such as NaiKun, including turbine manufacture, transport and erection, and the establishment of submarine transmission lines. Siemens even has a Canadian-based squad of 15 specialists who will access the interiors of the 90-metre-high towers to provide the necessary weekly maintenance – although Smith is adamant they would never put work ahead of safety, especially in a malevolent weather factory such as Hecate Strait.

But at this point in the conversation, Smith pauses, as if he feels he is getting ahead of himself. “We’ll have to wait and see. NaiKun is preparing an offer [to BC Hydro], and when that starts to firm up, then our deal could follow track. At this point, the ball is in the hands of
NaiKun and the provincial government.” With NaiKun’s stock dropping to just 25 cents at press time, from a 2007 high of nearly $4, it appears the investing public has little confidence of seeing a wind farm on the Queen Charlottes anytime soon.

Posted in Energy Probe News, Renewables | Leave a comment

Reviews of The Deniers

Art Raiche / Geoff Davies
CSIRO Publishing
December 1, 2008

 

The Deniers: The world renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution and fraud

by Lawrence Solomon

Publisher: Richard Vigilante Books, 2008,239 pp.

RRP: $56.00, ISBN: 978-0-9800763-1-8

Reviewed by Art Raiche

Does society benefit from a fear-driven science-funding policy that threatens the livelihood of scientists with the courage to argue against ‘orthodox’ and established ‘beyond doubt’ views on climate? The media drives this fear with increasingly hysterical messages that the earth is
getting hotter, that this is being caused by human CO2 emissions and, that without radical social and economic surgery, we will face a myriad of global catastrophes, the like of which have not been seen since the dawn of our history. We are told that all serious scientists agree with this and that those few who dissent are either charlatans or are funded by the fossil fuel companies.

Other dissenters are regarded on a par with creationists, Holocaust deniers or supporters of tobacco companies. But is this true? Is the science really settled. To answer this, Lawrence Solomon, the Canadian environmentalist and antinuclear campaigner, sought to find well regarded scientists who disagreed with the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) hysteria promoted by Al Gore and the IPCC. The result was astonishing in that for all of the headline issues of the AGW hypothesis, he found dissenting scientists who were consistently the most
accomplished and eminent people in their respective fields of expertise. In fact, the more he searched, the more there seemed to be, complete with data and analysis to support their positions. Chillingly, several of them, despite their substantial expertise and reputations, declined on-record interviews for fear of losing their funding and, in some cases, their jobs.

Solomon’s book, The Deniers, is a tour-deforce of expert opinions organised into chapters corresponding to the headline issues of AGW. It starts with a chapter on the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph, created by Michael Mann from temperature proxies such as tree rings and ice cores.

The graph purports to show that for the past 1000 years, temperatures had been declining until about 1900 when they began rising alarmingly in correlation with the growth of human-induced CO2 emissions. It showed the 1990s as the hottest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium. This graph of northern hemisphere temperatures for the last 1000 years appeared seven times in the IPCC
report of 2001. Curiously, the ‘hockey stick’ graph failed to show a well-known period of warmin in the 1930s and essentially contradicted
records from Russian naval log books that noted substantial Arctic warming durin the period 1920–40. It also contradicted
information from British naval log books that showed a period of rapid warming in Europe during the 1730s similar to that
recorded during the 1990s. Most astonishingly, it failed to show the well established existence of the Medieval Warming Period of 800–1300 CE.

Amongst many other critics, a Canadian statistician, Steve MacIntyre, recognised the graph as being similar to the deceptive
graphics used by mining promoters to hype risky hard-rock mineral exploration projects based on isolated results. After analysing
the statistical process used by Mann, he concluded that even when applied to random data, it would produce a ‘hockey stick’ graph. The Energy and Commerce Committee of the US Congress asked Edward Wegman, a man with a long, distinguished career, including being a past chairman of the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Academy of Sciences, to examine the controversy. After he corrected Mann’s errors in statistical methodology, the hockey stick disappeared. Along with the panel of prominent statisticians that he had recruited (pro bono) to help him, Wegman concluded that, at most, Mann’s graph was valid for less than half of those 1000 years. As a
result, despite its prominence in the IPCC’s 3rd AR (Assessment Report) of 2001, the graph was dropped from their 2007 4th AR.

Another chapter of The Deniers discusses the work of Richard Tol, one of the world’s leading environmental economists and an author for chapters from all three IPCC Working group contributions. A holder of multiple prestigious academic appointments, he was highly critical of the Stern Review on the Economists of Climate Change. Tol said that the Stern Report was a mishmash of bad mathematics and bad faith and had treated worst case scenarios with the unwarranted likelihood of being correct.

A lot of the alarmism connected with climate change is associated with the predictions of various climate modelling programs, sometimes referred to as GCMs (general circulation models). The Deniers contains a long chapter on the limits of predictability of these programs and how their simplifications do not begin to capture the complexity of climate processes. To quote Freeman Dyson, one of the world’s most eminent physicists: ‘The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.’

Solomon notes that Richard Lindzen, a professor of meteorology at MIT, consultant to NASA and recipient of many professional society honours, testified that numerous problems had been found with the way the models treated clouds and water vapour, two very critical drivers of climate. He states: ‘It isn’t just that the alarmists are trumpeting model results that we know must be wrong. It is that they are trumpeting catastrophes that couldn’t happen even if the model results were right.’

One example of this was Lindzen’s observation that if the model results were correct, global warming would reduce temperature differences between the poles which would decrease rather than increase the energy in tropical storms.

Nevertheless, fuelled by Hurricane Katrina and several other storms in 2004, many doomsayers predicted an apocalyptic increase in the number and ferocity of hurricanes due to global warming. Dr Christopher Landsea, of the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological
Laboratory, one of the world’s top experts in hurricanes and a contributing author to the IPCC’s 2nd and 3rd ARs, disagreed
strongly because his work was showing the direct opposite. He resigned his involvement in the 4th IPCC report after the lead author of the chapter in which hurricanes were discussed had made a speech supporting the increased hurricane hypothesis. Solomon devotes several pages describing the efforts of Landsea, Lindzen and others to combat this falsely generated hysteria. These efforts eventually
succeeded, partially due to the failure of subsequent hurricane seasons to live up to prior billing. The latest IPCC Summary for
Policymakers stated: ‘There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones’.

The Deniers discusses another of the apocalyptic predictions of AGW, the rise of sea levels and the concomitant flooding of
low-lying heavily populated areas. After analysing satellite data from 1992 to 2003, Prof. Duncan Wingham, director of the
NERC Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling and principal scientist of the European Space Agency Cryosat Satellite
Mission, found that there was a net growth of the Antarctic ice sheet of 5 mm per year.

This includes the well-publicised melting on the Antarctic Peninsula that juts so far to the north. Since Antarctica contains
about 90 percent of the world’s ice, the fact that it seems to be a sink rather than a source of sea water would indicate that
concerns of rising sea level are misplaced. Another headline issue discussed in The Deniers is the predicted catastrophic
spread of malaria and other mosquitoborne diseases with increasing temperature. Prof. Paul Reiter, head of the
Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit at the Pasteur Institute, chairman of the American Committee of Medical
Entomology and contributing author to the IPCC 3rd AR regards this as utterly without foundation. He notes that until the
second half of the 20th century, malaria was widespread throughout the world including Europe, the US, Siberia and with
major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle. Malaria was an important cause of death in England during the Little Ice Age
and only began to decline there in the 19th century when the present warming trend was well underway. It was largely
eliminated through the use of insecticides, anti-malarial drugs and sound public health and land management practices.

Reiter notes that the rapid recrudescence of mosquito-borne diseases is due to inept government public health policies and
resistance to insecticides and drugs. The Deniers features extensive discussions by prominent scientists of aspects of the
greenhouse effect of CO2. The technical details are difficult to summarise in a short book review but they include discussions
of atmosphere–ocean interactions, radiative transfer, ice core measurements and the lifetime of CO2 emissions in the
atmosphere. All basically conclude that cultural CO2 concentration has very little effect on global temperature. Several
prominent researchers note that the graph in An Inconvenient Truth showing a 600 000 year correlation between increased
atmospheric CO2 concentrations and rising temperature is somewhat dishonest in confusing cause and effect. Temperature
rise led rather than lagged the CO2 increase, typically by a few hundred to a thousand years. In the same vein, Dr Syun-
Ichi Akasofu points out that the dramatic fall in temperature from 1940 to 1970 doesn’t correlate with increasing CO2.
Moreover, the IPCC’s own models point to the irrelevance of CO2 as a driver of climate change because different
geographic regions were warming at different rates while others actually cooled.

Has the earth actually warmed during the 21st century? This is a contentious issue because of the problems associated with
trying to define an average global temperature, especially from ground-based measurements. Although 70% of the
earth’s surface is ocean, 90% of the ground-based measurement stations are on land. Moreover, as urban centres have
expanded, these are now disproportionately located near heat sources. The IPCC says that the data has been corrected for this but
this is contentious. By contrast, satellite temperature measurements, which can sample the entire globe, show a cooling
trend so far this century. Is this temporary or is it possible that the earth is starting to cool?

Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov the head of the Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, a man
at the pinnacle of Russia’s space-oriented scientific establishment, is a strong critic of manmade CO2 as driving global
warming. The Deniers presents his observation that parallel global warmings on Mars and Earth can only be due to a
long term change in solar irradiance. He has identified a 200-year cycle in solar activity that has peaked and is now decreasing. He believes that a protracted cooling period will begin in the period 2012–15 leading to a deep freeze around 2055–60, similar to that of the Little Ice
Age. His hypothesis is now the focus of Russian experiments on the International Space Station. Project Astrometria has
been given high priority by the Russian and Ukrainian Academies of Science to try to identify the likely duration and depth of
the predicted global cooling period.

The effect of solar cycles on our climate goes beyond the total solar irradiance reaching Earth. Periods of high solar
activity result in high solar wind velocities and magnetic fields that shield us from the cosmic ray barrage from the rest of the
cosmos. This shielding attenuates significantly during periods of low activity.

The Deniers presents the science that links increased cosmic ray flux with global cooling because it promotes an increase in
low altitude cloud formation. As shown by Project SKY at the Danish National Space Centre, this happens because the passing
muons in the cosmic radiation release electrons that promote the formation of molecular clusters, the building blocks for
cloud condensation nuclei. A follow-on study of this crucial effect, the CLOUD experiment has been established at CERN,
with an interdisciplinary team of scientists from 18 institutes in nine countries,comprised of atmospheric physicists, solar
physicists, and cosmic-ray and particle physicists.

The Deniers is a fascinating journey through leading-edge climate research. The experts cited by Solomon are clearly
neither charlatans nor pandering to any particular funding channel. Rather, these eminent scientists present cogent reasons,
strongly supported by data, for questioning the accepted ‘truth’. One is left with astonishment and indignation that their
work is largely ignored by the media.

 


Second review of The Deniers by Geoff Davies for CSIRO Publishing (an independent science and technology publisher)

There is a story, perhaps apocryphal, that a US Senator once wished plaintively for ‘a ne-armed scientist’. The Senator was ired of hearing from cautious scientists
who would offer an opinion, but then say ‘On the other hand …’ Science does not deal in certainties. The ife of policy makers might be simpler if it id, but nothing else in life is certain so really they don’t have much reason to complain.

Perhaps the distinctive thing about scientists is that they are more often honest about uncertainties. Come to think of it a politician might not be able to comprehend that, and might therefore find it frustrating.

In my assessment this book carries messages at several levels. Level One is that it’s not proven that humans are the cause of global warming. Level Two is that
policy makers should not do anything about global warming unless and until it’s proven that we’re the cause. Level Three is that there is a conspiracy to suppress
debate about the causes of global warming.

I hesitate to put my view on Level One in writing, for fear it will appear out of context on the websites of sceptics. I think it is not proven that we are the main cause of global warming, but then I don’t think it can be proven rigorously that the sun will rise around the time my clock next says 6 am.

So to Level Two. A great deal of the public discussion of global warming concerns whether or not it is proven that we are the cause of it, and thereby a great deal of
mischief is done, because it should no longer be the issue preoccupying our policy makers. This may well seem contentious so I will explain. We have known for decades that the effect, if any, of our greenhouse gas emissions would be delayed by decades. Climate scientists have also assembled a long list of potential positive feedbacks that could be triggered by our emissions, any, some or all of which could swing our climate uncontrollably and irreversibly into a dramatically different state. Together, these points mean that if we are to act effectively to avoid human-caused global warming we have to act before we have a high level of confidence that we are the cause. Simply, if we wait that long it will be too late.

What to do? The only thing to do is to ask those most familiar with the climate for their considered professional judgement. We have that, and the message is very
clear: in the considered professional judgement of a large majority of climate scientists, it is 90% sure that we are ccausing global warming. That is not at all
the same thing as saying human-caused global warming is proven. It is a professional judgement on the state of the science. I think policy makers would be irresponsible to ignore a warning like that. They do have to consider the safety of their citizens.

Yes, there are plenty who argue the IPCC exaggerated this or that, or got the other thing wrong, and by now there are probably just as many, myself included, who think the IPCC was irresponsibly conservative and unduly influenced by political considerations. The IPCC is, after all, created by governments and its members are nominated by governments. Thus I think we must act to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. At the very least it’s an insurance policy, and not a very expensive one. Even those economic modellers who are unsympathetic are only claiming that growth of GDP would be slowed by a percentage point or so, and other modellers suggest much less.

There are studies, frankly much more credible because they’re only summarising things already being done, that show we can cut a lot of our emissions for little or
no cost if we go about it the right way, which is to stop using energy so wastefully. For example, the McKinsey Institute estimates Australia can cut emissions by
20% by 2020 for zero net cost. In other words we’d be smart to do it anyway, regardless of global warming. Why, then, are the sceptics making such a fuss?

So we come to Level Three, the conspiracy. I think this charge has little going for it. I’ve been on the minority side of a major scientific dispute, so I’m personally acquainted with the frustration, but there’s nothing to do but keep plugging away. So my advice to the sceptics is, if you want to debate the science, then do it
in the scientific fora. If, on the other hand, you want to debate policy, then get clear what the issues are for policy makers.

So let the scientific debates continue, but do it in the responsible way. Sceptics who are out to prove a point actually have a strategic advantage. It’s relatively easy for one person to trawl through a scientific discipline and find diverse bits that challenge the prevailing view of the time. It’s much harder for one person to have the breadth and depth of knowledge to respond to the full range of questions raised. Thus it’s easy to sit on the sidelines sniping. It’s harder to reach a broadly well-informed view.

I’ll finish by mentioning one issue in the book that I happen to know about in more detail. In the record of glacial cycles CO2 fluctuations lag temperature fluctuations
by hundreds of years. This is claimed by sceptics to prove CO2 can’t be the cause of the current global warming. A study by Hogg (Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, doi:10.1029/2007GL032071, 2008) shows that in the glacial cycle CO2 is a major amplifier, accounting for the striking asymmetry of the fluctuations. But CO2 can cause a lot of warming on its own too. Thus there is no contradiction between CO2 lagging during the glacial cycle but leading in the present episode of warming.

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Good tolls, bad tolls

Lawrence Solomon

November 28, 2008

There are many reasons for road tolls, Metrolinx isn’t one of them.

The Greater Toronto Area needs a gazillion dollars to fund Metrolinx, a mega mega transportation system of light rail, commuter trains, subways, highways, roads, and bicycle paths designed to reach every ward in an 8,000 square kilometre operating region approaching six million people. It will cost more than governments can afford, say its government backers.

The answer, the backers say, is a toll road system that extends across the GTA and finances the transit megaproject.

I have a better idea. Install the GTA-wide toll road system and scrap Metrolinx. Once roads are tolled, the population growth that is now projected for Toronto’s environs — the main driver for Metrolinx — will plummet, along with the need for new transit infrastructure.The monies raised in tolls from the GTA’s more stable population can then be returned to GTA residents — the owners of the roads — through lower property taxes, lower gas taxes and lower vehicle registration fees.

Toll road systems work, as proven in numerous jurisdictions around the world. They reduce or eliminate traffic congestion which in turn lowers travel times, which in turn lowers the cost of taking a cab or of running a bus, which in turn increases these vehicles market share, which in turn increases their financial viability, which in turn helps taxi, bus, subway and streetcar systems expand, which in turn lets public transit provide better service, which in turn makes people less dependent on cars.

This virtuous circle spills off road, too: Tolled areas suffer fewer accidents, leading to fewer hospital visits and lower automobile insurance costs; they reduce air pollution, benefitting pedestrians and drivers alike. Little wonder that toll road systems with integrity — those designed to recover costs through user fees rather than to fill government coffers or fund pet projects — tend to find favour with the public. Stockholm’s population decided by referendum to keep its road toll system after a six-month trial; London voted in a mayor who campaigned on the promise to introduce a toll road system. Governments worldwide are now working to introduce toll road systems, knowing that voter reaction tends to be favourable.

GTA transportation planners are going about everything backwards. Instead of building toll roads on their own merits, and building transit facilities only where needed to handle the extra transit business that comes from people switching away from their private automobiles, GTA planners start with their megalomaniacal transit schemes and then tack on toll roads as a funding mechanism.

Public transit systems are boons to society, efficient people movers that are indispensable to a well functioning economy — when there are people to move. Without people in sufficient numbers — as in predominantly suburban and rural GTA — transit systems become societal drags, their near-empty vehicles doing harm to the environment as well as the economy. When put to such uses, public transit cripples cities, creates sprawl, and ultimately undermines the province as a whole.

Prior to the creation of Metropolitan Toronto in 1953, the city of Toronto had an exemplary public transit system in its Toronto Transportation Commission, all of its routes money makers. Once Metro Toronto came into being, the TTC’s political masters required it to service the low density suburban areas in Metropolitan Toronto. In this it succeeded — by running near empty buses along suburban routes on a frequent schedule, the TTC made suburban life feasible, leading to the population of the rural areas outside the city limits. This suburban sprawl came at a cost to the environment, and to the city as well — to cover the losses on its money-losing routes outside the city, the TTC starved city routes of services, ultimately turning off customers. In the end, virtually all TTC routes, whether in the city or the suburb, became money losers, to the economic harm of all.

This scenario is about to be repeated by the GTA and Metrolinx, a 21st century counterpart to Metro Toronto and the TTC. By extending transit services to areas that cannot support transit on their own, the Toronto region is embarking on another round of uneconomic development that will see its rural areas and prime farmland paved over at a loss.

The city of Toronto and the province of Ontario face new hardship as well, as spelled out in a recent report from TD Economics. Because the property tax system already provides incentives for companies to move jobs out of the city core, TD explains, a subsidized Metrolinx “would inevitably exacerbate sprawl and the negative externalities it inflicts by making it more convenient for people and companies to locate further away from Toronto.” The TD report is written in the context of “where the Ontario economy will be in 2020. Will it continue to wither? Or, will Ontario manage to regain the kind of dominant economic presence that bestowed abundant benefits to residents in past decades?”

Rather than Ontario withering, Metrolinx should.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.

Background source for this article.

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New ideas could stop reliance on foreign oil

Roy Strang
Peace Arch News
November 22, 2008

 

Whether you side with the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and attribute global warming largely to our burning of fossil fuels, or if you join Lawrence Solomon and the “deniers” and cite solar activities and cosmic radiation as the causes, you must accept that we are approaching an energy crisis.

Debate on the reasons for climate change is unfortunately diverting attention away from examination of energy security.

It’s been 35 years since then-president Richard Nixon set out to make the U.S. independent of foreign energy. At that time, the U.S. was importing only about 30 per cent of its oil; today it brings in almost two-thirds of its requirement.

In Canada, more than half of the oil consumed is imported, and imports have been estimated to rise by 23 per cent in 2008 from 2007’s volume.

One approach to dealing with the problem is to use new technologies for extracting energy from coal liquids, oil shale and tar sands.

However, available methods are expensive, environmentally harmful, and sometimes both. “Clean coal” is touted as an alternative, but there’s not yet a single, large-scale demonstration project nor significant investment, although coal resources are large. Now that we have new federal and municipal governments, and will shortly have a new provincial government also, isn’t it a good time to move forcefully in a new direction, to invest in current and developing techniques to replace our outdated and damaging carbon-based fuel energy?

The sea, wind and ocean currents are all available energy sources, and are free aside from the costs of harnessing them.

Let’s develop solar thermal plants in our sunniest regions; build wind farms where we know the winds are reliable; and tap geo-thermal sources and ocean currents and tides. Link these power sources into a national grid using modern high-voltage, low-loss underground cables to bring electricity from rural areas, where it is generated, to urban communities where it is used.

A second initiative would be to promote and foster the development of hybrid cars capable of plugging into the national grid, which could be charged in off-peak hours. Building codes should be amended to encourage, even mandate, energy-efficient new construction and to retro-fit existing buildings.

The technical know-how is there. Do our new governments have the will to make use of it? Knowing that oil is a finite resource, which will be exhausted one of these days, they should be preparing for that day while there is still time. And if IPCC happens to be right, they will also reduce or minimize the cause of global warming as an additional and desirable outcome.

I was remiss in last week’s column on daylight saving time in failing to thank Mr. P.M. de Rosa for the idea and the data.

Dr. Roy Strang writes weekly on the environment for the Peace Arch News.

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Ontario’s car pool embargo

Lawrence Solomon
FP Comment
November 22, 2008

With governmental blessings, you can car pool from home to work, but only under certain conditions.

Governments want us to maximize car pooling to take excess cars off the road, to save energy, and to clean up the environment, right?

Wrong, if the government is Ontario and provincial. In Ontario, car pooling is a prohibited activity that can only be allowed under strict government control, as determined by a government regulatory agency set up to oversee such conduct. Those who violate the law – as did a nonplused outfit called PickupPal — can and will be punished with the full force of the law. With the government’s blessings, you can share expenses by car pooling from home to work and back again, but only under certain conditions. You have crossed the line if you try to car pool to work across a municipal boundary — the government frowns upon suburbanites who commute this way. As for car pooling for a frivolous, non-work purpose — to school, to the hockey arena, to the doctor’s office — this is outlawed outright, regardless of whether you cross a municipal boundary.

Ontario places other restrictions, too, on car pooling. First, you must demonstrate dedication by sticking to the same driver, day in day out. You can’t catch a ride with Peter on Mondays if Paul picks you up Tuesdays. And you must never, ever be prompt in reimbursing your driver for your share of the ride. Once a week or once a month is fine. Try to pay more frequently and you’ll get pulled off to the side of the road if you get caught.

PickupPal, an Internet startup not yet one year old, is a phenom that already operates in over 100 countries, over 1000 lower-level jurisdictions such as states and provinces, and tens of thousands of municipalities. Only Ontario, through its Ontario Highway Transportation Board, has clamped down on it, an irony since PickupPal is based in Ontario. The transportation board — established by the government to protect local bus monopolies — last week fined PickupPal $11,000 and cost it $30,000 in legal fees after a chartered bus company filed a complaint.

PickupPal is now lobbying to have the government relax restrictions on car pooling and — given how ludicrous the current car pool rules are — it may well succeed. Yet PickupPal’s regulatory problems are unlikely to end, particularly if it continues to grow rapidly. Transportation monopolies exist throughout the world, most importantly in road services. If PickupPal — which makes it easy for passengers to find drivers willing to go from Point A to Point B — is allowed to operate without restriction, not only bus but also taxi monopolies would be doomed. This innovative start-up using geopositioning technology could soon be as threatening to the status quo as the automobile was to the horse and buggy.

The choice for governments would then be stark: To back tomorrow’s vibrant high-tech growth industries or yesterday’s outdated monopolies. Clearly, governments should decide on the former and will decide on the latter.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.

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China Dialogue review of global warming debate not objective, says author of environmental best seller

Lawrence Solomon

November 11, 2008

China Dialogue fails to objectively review the scientific debate about global warming in the environmental best seller, The Deniers, by Lawrence Solomon of Energy Probe, Canada’s top energy industry watchdog. Probe International calls the author’s response a “must read” for Chinese environmentalists, lawmakers, and scholars.

Response to China Dialogue review

In July of this year, China Dialogue, a London-based media website, prominently reviewed Lawrence Solomon’s The Deniers: The World-Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud (Lawrence Solomon is a colleague at Probe International’s sister organization, Energy Probe). To further the debate over the science of global warming, we at Probe International suggested to China Dialogue that its reviewer, George Marshall of www.climatedenial.org, and our Mr. Solomon, engage in a debate on China Dialogue’s website. China Dialogue declined the invitation. It also declined to grant Mr. Solomon equal space for a reply to Mr. Marshall’s review. To provide the response that we believe is warranted, we have asked Mr. Solomon to respond here. – Editors

Lawrence Solomon responds:

When China Dialogue commissioned a review of The Deniers, my book about the global warming views of many of the world’s most renowned scientists, I was grateful. While The Deniers has received considerable coverage in North America – it was for four months the #1 environmental best seller in both Canada and the U.S. – it has attracted little attention in China, now the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide and thus the country that stands to lose most from ill-informed climate change policies.

Upon seeing the review, I was perplexed. China Dialogue’s choice of reviewer — George Marshall, whom it acknowledges runs a blog, www.climatedenial.org, that “regularly challenges climate skeptic arguments” — was unlikely to produce an objective review of the scientific debate. And China Dialogue’s choice didn’t.

Mr. Marshall does give me credit for relying only on scientists of the highest rank. “There are no dodgy hired guns here: pukka, medal-wearing scientific stars the lot of them,” he acknowledges. But he misleads China Dialogue readers by implying that these scientists ultimately subscribe to the consensus claimed by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — that global warming is occurring, that it’s manmade, and that, if unabated, it will likely lead to catastrophe.

“Solomon’s key witnesses actually are leading scientists who accept the core consensus but have some important and relevant reservations around the specifics of the causes and the impacts. By page 45 of his book, Solomon has admitted as much: “I noticed something striking about my growing cast of deniers. None of them were deniers.”1

Remember page 45 – I will explain its significance shortly. Before I do, let’s consider Mr. Marshall’s claim that my scientists accept the man-made global warming thesis, albeit with a few “reservations.” Mr. Marshall fails to describe those reservations but China Dialogue’s readers deserve to know that , taken together, those “reservations” effectively destroy the theory that global warming is manmade and catastrophic.

The first “reservation,” by Dr. Edward Wegman, former chairman of the Committee on Applied and Theoretical of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, involved the IPCC’s famous “hockey stick graph.” This graph, created by a computer model that relies on indirect, theoretical data, purported to show that the 1990s was the warmest decade of the warmest century of the last millennium. More than any other piece of research, this graph convinced the press and the public that global warming was real and manmade.

Dr. Wegman, one of the world’s top statisticians, determined that the scientists who produced the hockey stick graph had made an elementary error in their statistical model – with the result that their model would produce a hockey stick graph regardless of the data that was fed into it. In other words, there is no scientific evidence to prove that temperatures were warmer in the 1990s than in earlier decades of the 20th century2, or that the 1900s was the warmest century of the millennium. Dr. Wegman’s findings demolished one of the central pillars of the so-called climate change consensus — that temperatures today are unusual.

The second “reservation” that Mr. Marshall doesn’t tell readers about involves the Stern Review, the economic report that made banner headlines around the world by claiming that global warming could lead to a global catastrophe “on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.” These claims, according to Dr. Richard S. J. Tol, one of the world’s leading environmental economists, were based on numerous errors and were ultimately “preposterous … The Stern Review can therefore be dismissed as alarmist and incompetent.” Dr. Tol (along with other leading economists3) thus demolished a second central pillar of climate change doomsayers — that global warming could lead to economic catastrophe.

The third “reservation” that Mr. Marshall trivialized involves hurricanes, which in 2004 and 2005 were widely blamed on global warming, in good part because IPCC scientists held a press conference that convinced the world to that effect. Dr. Christopher Landsea, the IPCC’s own hurricane expert, tried desperately to stop that press conference, saying “There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between global warming and observed hurricane frequency and intensity.” None of the IPCC scientists at the press conference had expertise in hurricanes. Dr. Landsea then resigned from the IPCC. His story demolished yet another pillar of the conventional wisdom on climate change — that global warming increases hurricane activity.

The fourth “reservation” involves Dr. Duncan Wingham, director of the Center for Polar Observation and Modeling and principal scientist of the European Space Agency’s Cryosat Mission, a $130-million project designed to map changes in the depth of Antarctica’s ice. Dr. Wingham’s satellite data demonstrates that Antarctica is not melting, as doomsayers, claim. Rather, it is thickening. Dr. Wingham thus demolishes a fourth pillar of climate change catastrophics — that Antarctica’s vast store of ice will melt, raise ocean levels, and flood low-lying coastal areas.

We are now at page 45 of my book, the page Mr. Marshall notes. “None of them were deniers,” he quotes me as saying, implying that all the scientists in my book actually support the climate change consensus. In fact, by page 45 I had only profiled four scientists and, by chance, they were not out-and-out deniers – they each objected to global warming claims made in their own spheres of knowledge but did not dispute scientific findings in other spheres. At page 46, my book begins to profile numerous scientists who entirely reject the IPCC consensus. These include:

Dr. Antonino Zichichi, Italy’s best known scientist. He is the discoverer of nuclear anti-matter, the former president of the European Physical Society, and the president of the World Federation of Scientists. Dr. Zichichi believes that global warming is almost entirely a natural phenomenon and that the UN models that show otherwise are “incoherent and invalid.”

Dr. Syun Akasofu, founder of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska. He is the discoverer of the origin of the storms of the aurora borealis, has been honored by the Royal Astronomical Society of London and the American Geophysical Union, and was twice named one of the “1000 Most Cited Scientists.” Dr. Akasofu notes that Earth has been warming at the same rate for more than three centuries because Earth has been climbing out of the last Little Ice Age.

Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov is the head of the space research laboratory of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Pulkovo Observatory, and of the Astrometria project on the International Space Station, which Russia shares with the U.S. He notes that global warming has been occurring on Mars and other planets as well as on Earth, and that all the warming is due to the same reason: they all share the same Sun.

Dr. Reid Bryson (who recently died), was a hero to the American environmental movement going back to the 1970s. Known as the “Father of Scientific Climatology,” he was a member of the United Nations’ Global 500 Roll of Honor and was judged “the world’s most cited climatologist” by the Institute of British Geographers. Dr. Bryson characterized global warming: as “a theory for which there is no credible proof.”

No fair-minded person can claim that the science is settled on global warming. Mr. Marshall has not only failed to be fair-minded, he has compounded the unfairness by attacking the integrity of many of the scientists who had the courage to speak out despite the repercussions that they faced — some have lost their funding, some their jobs, all have become subject to slander.

We simply do not yet know whether man has played a significant role in global warming. We do know that we will not find out by putting blinkers on ourselves and punishing the scientists who dare to speak out. And we do know that there are sensible, straightforward measures that we can and should take to protect the global environment, measures that make sense regardless of the scientific findings on global warming.

Governments in western and developing countries alike should stop subsidizing energy producing and energy consuming industries. Doing this would scale back energy consumption, along with uneconomic capital projects such as gas pipelines, nuclear plants, ethanol plants, pulp and paper mills, and smokestack industries. Greenhouse gas emissions, NOx, SOx, and nuclear wastes would then decline for economic reasons, energy conservation would soar, communities now poisoned by known pollutants would be relieved, and the stage would be set for an economically sustainable energy future.

If Mr. Marshall has objections to this, he’s welcome to reply.

Lawrence Solomon is Executive Director of Energy Probe, the chief critic of the energy industry in Canada.

——————————————————————————–

1 “Deniers” is a pejorative term, used by supporters of the UN position to liken global warming skeptics to Nazi sympathizers, i.e., fascist extremists who are not accepted by the mainstream of society. I use this term ironically.

2 Indeed, NASA recently revised its data, following the discovery of an error. It now reports that the 1930s was the warmest decade.

3 Another such economist is Yale University’s William Nordhaus, the world’s leading climate change economist. For a fuller discussion of how misguided Stern is, and the consequences for China, see the exchange between Nordhaus and Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson in the pages of the New York Review of Books. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21494.

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Green market risk

Lawrence Solomon
FP Comment
November 8, 2008

If you think the causes of the financial crisis are complicated, just wait until we start trading carbon.

Think that the causes of the current financial crisis are hard to figure out? Think that the Wall Street wizards went too far in creating sub-prime mortgages and asset-backed papers and hedges and off-setting derivatives and other financial instruments that few understood on their own, whose value no one could easily establish, and whose interactions no one on this planet could ever figure out, except maybe in theory? Think that central bankers have lost control of their currencies and that they are flailing about, as clueless as to what needs to be done as the governments that throw rescue package upon bailout package at the crisis, hoping that something, somewhere, somehow, will stick?

Think we have learned our lesson about creating artificial securities, divorced from the real world and highly leveraged, so volatile and inscrutable as to be capable of sending markets into even worse hells, and entire economies into real depressions?

Think again.

To the layers of confusion that now exist in our financial markets we are about to add another, as opaque and volatile as the others, and as unhinged from the real world — a carbon currency. President-elect Barack Obama wants it, Prime Minister Stephen Harper wants it and their European counterparts, to some extent, already have it.

Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the world’s largest trading exchange for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. If ambitious Kyoto-style plans come to fruition, ETS will morph to account for, among other things, the carbon content of all industrial and biological processes, and the carbon carrying capacity of all the real estate on our planet. Because carbon is a building block of life, and because we live in a carbon-based planet, carbon prices will become more ubiquitous than the U.S. dollar. It would become, in effect, a globally traded currency tied to gaseous commodities that until recently were nowhere traded.

What might this commodity-based currency be like? A week ago, the commodity traded on the ETS — EU allowances of greenhouse gas emissions — plummeted in value by 20%, after falling 20% three months earlier. This comes just two years after the ETS exchange had its first major collapse — a 70% decline on rumours that some governments were about to give their industries extra emission rights, followed by even steeper declines that virtually wiped out the value of the allowances. Prior to the declines, the allowances had seen a steep climb in value.

The good news — and the reason no one much cares about these collapses — is that the carbon emissions market is in its infancy, a mere $64-billion last year, compared to the trillions trading hourly in international markets. A collapse in today’s carbon market roils international stock markets far less than, say, a collapse of the Thai bhat might, which is to say not at all.

But what will happen should carbon become a major currency, and a highly volatile one at that? For starters, every carbon-intensive business will need protection against the extreme changes seen in carbon prices. This protection — carbon-hedging mechanisms of various kinds — will themselves assume outsized proportions because the businesses subject to carbon fluctuations will vastly outnumber those that now hedge against fluctuations in fossil fuels — in addition to the energy industry, airlines, utilities and others that now need fossil fuel hedges, will be forestry, agriculture, real estate, deserts, dams and other land-based sectors.

How will the new financial sector that emerges to price these hedges determine values? The “marketplace” for carbon allowances will be one in which both supply and demand are set by governments, in which intense corporate lobbying for changes to both supply and demand is all but certain, and in which moral hazard — in the form of an expectation of a government bailout — is an absolute certainty. Valuing the toxic instruments created by Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac, that corrupted the pool of debt securities, will seem like child’s play in comparison.

To avoid a future market meltdown of the likes we are now experiencing, almost all are agreed, we need to avoid opaque financial instruments that can’t be easily understood or valued. Carbon offsets, credits, allowances sinks and other instruments attempt to create pricing for vast stores of carbon dioxide — something that can’t be seen, that has no intrinsic commercial value, and that may prove to benefit rather than harm the environment. They are obscure and opaque, instruments both green and toxic.
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.

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