Temporary nuclear shutdown recommended to deny terrorists targets

Tom Adams

October 12, 2001

Energy Probe, a national environmental think tank, has called on the premiers of New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario to immediately order the temporary closure of the nuclear power reactors operating in their respective provinces.

A terrorist attack on an operating nuclear power station, particularly one of those located in the densely populated Toronto region could kill tens of thousands of people and cause hundred of billions of dollars in damage to property. An attack on a reactor that has been temporarily shut down poses no risk of a terrorist induced meltdown.

Quebec and New Brunswick each have one operable reactor and Ontario has 12 operable reactors. All the power reactors in Canada, except for the reactor in Quebec, are located close to the U.S. border.

Energy Probe has suggested that the lost power can be made up from additional coal-fired or oil-fired power production and, in the case of Quebec, additional hydro-electric production. Sufficient reserve capacity is available to maintain service to power consumers.

 

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Nuclear and Grid Security Update

Tom Adams

October 11, 2001

Apparently partially in response to requests from the Mayor of Clarington and Energy Probe, the Canadian Department of National Defense has fighter aircraft stationed at Trenton as of last week. These aircraft are integrated in the NORAD system.

The minimum flight ceilings around some nuclear facilities have been doubled to 3000 feet.

Apparently directly in response to CTV coverage in late September where Energy Probe demonstrated the accessibility of real-time data about the flow of power on parts of the electricity grid in Canada — information that could assist attackers in planning a potentially debilitating disruption of our power system – some of the sensitive information has been removed from the publicly accessible web and is now password protected. One example you can check for yourself is http://oasis.nbpower.com.

The federal Ministry of the Solicitor General replied by telephone today to our letter of September 15th addressed to the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister, and the Solicitor General detailing specific gaps in the security regime for nuclear power and nuclear waste facilities. The federal Ministry of the Solicitor General indicated that we will have to wait until December or January for a reply to our letter.

 

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City security unchanged since hits on Afghanistan

Sonia Verma
Toronto Star
October 10, 2001

As darkness descends on the city, canine patrols comb the perimeter of the CN Tower, sniffing for trouble. Argos fans pressing into the SkyDome expect to have their bags checked. Workers in Toronto’s financial district must carry identification at all times to clear security.

While cities across the United States ratcheted up security, fearing retaliation for air strikes in Afghanistan, security forces in Toronto have been holding steady since they were put on heightened alert Sept. 11.

Longer line-ups at the airport, hassles at the border and more guards in downtown offices are a reminder of how life has changed.

Security at possible local terrorist targets – including airports, bus stations, nuclear reactors and tourist attractions – remains largely unchanged across the GTA since Sunday’s U.S.-British attacks on Afghanistan.

“We haven’t made any changes since Sept. 11. The things we had put into place remain in place,” said Mike Walker, chief security officer for the Toronto Transit Commission.

“There’s been stepped up security since the World Trade Center attacks. No further directives have come to us from Transport Canada,” said Peter Gregg, spokesperson for the Greater Toronto Airports Authority.

Everyone remains tight-lipped about the types of precautions being taken. “We don’t discuss security measures here, period,” said an official at the U.S. Consulate in Toronto.

Without knowing details of the safety measures in place, some observers are concerned that safety isn’t being taken seriously enough.

 

Tom Adams, executive director of Energy Probe and a former director of the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO), says nuclear stations are open to the kind of suicide attacks that hit New York and the Pentagon last month, suggesting air-defence systems may be required to properly protect them.

 

Adams cites one of two control rooms, capable of running Ontario’s electricity grid, located along the flight path of aircraft rumbling in and out of Pearson International Airport.

Less than two kilometres from the airport, the facility is run by the IMO, which is charged with keeping the province’s electrical grid up and running.

The IMO’s main day-to-day main control facility, inherited from Ontario Hydro, is in Clarkson. The airport facility was set up by the IMO as a backup.

“We never walked ourselves through the logical implications of our vulnerabilities,” he said.

Kevin Dove, a spokesperson for the IMO, said the agency is examining all aspects of security, but wouldn’t comment directly on the airport control room.

Toronto Police Chief Julian Fantino says if the city were targeted by terrorists, Toronto would find it difficult to muster an emergency response similar to the one that took place after the attacks in New York.

Tools like a helicopter and more active intelligence squads cost money, but they’re the kind of things the police force would need to combat terrorism in Toronto, the chief said.

“We would be hard pressed to come up with the kind of services and responses to deal with that,” Fantino said in a wide-ranging interview with the Star‘s editorial board yesterday morning.

“We have to take the context of New York City and prepare for that.”

Fantino, along with Fire Chief Alan Speed and ambulance general manager Ron Kelusky, will meet with Premier Mike Harris and Prime Minister Jean Chrétien to discuss the state of Toronto’s emergency plans.

Bracing for possible terrorist attacks has forced some agencies to draw up new operations plans, but the TTC has been preparing for such attacks on the subway for more than two years, a senior TTC official says.

No specific threats have been made against the system, but the TTC has recruited U.S. biological and chemical weapons experts to work with its staff and has invited elite Canadian military and security forces to train in its subway tunnels, deputy general manager Lynn Hilborn says.

Since February, 1999, Hilborn says, TTC staff have, among other things, attended NATO, CIA, FBI and U.S. Secret Service anti-terrorism seminars; brought groups of Canadian commandos from the elite Joint Task Force 2 to train in the subway system; organized a three-day training session this spring with U.S. transportation department experts in nuclear, chemical and biological terrorism for TTC security staff and Toronto police, fire and ambulance personnel.

Hilborn says that since Sept. 11 the TTC has also developed a three-level alert system that would trigger progressively more stringent protections.

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Nuclear plant security breach called `appalling’

Roberta Avery
Toronto Star
October 6, 2001

 

Two men, dog slip under locked gate seeking help

TIVERTON — The failure of security at the Bruce Power nuclear station to detect two men and a dog — they crawled under a locked gate and entered an office building after their boat capsized — doesn’t seem to have shaken the confidence of area residents.

“Not too many people here are worried,” Eric Howald, editor of the Kincardine Independent newspaper, said yes- terday.

Security at all of Canada’s nuclear facilities including the Bruce generating plant on the Lake Huron shore, was ordered tightened in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Twelve days later, just after midnight on Sept. 23, two men from the London, Ont., area and their dog made it to the rocky shore of the nuclear power plant after clinging to their overturned boat for five hours.

They got inside one of the office buildings and phoned for help, said Bruce Power spokesperson Susan Brissette.

“The security of the nuclear stations was not compromised. The men were nowhere near the generating stations,” said Brissette.

That’s not how the Sierra Club of Canada’s nuclear policy adviser, David Martin, sees it.

“Coming as it did on the heels of terrorist attacks when security was supposed to be heightened, it’s shocking that no one knew they were there until they called for help,” said Martin.

He added: “This confirms our belief that security at Canadian nuclear facilities is appalling.”

Bruce Power emergency response crews came to the aid of the men, who were taken to the Kincardine hospital suffering from hypothermia.

The two men have since been released from hospital, said Brissette.

Bruce Power advised South Bruce Ontario Provincial Police about the incident, but no charges were laid, said Sergeant Dave Rektor.

Ken McClement, a member of the Lake Huron Fishing Club, said the area around the Bruce plant is a popular spot for duck hunting and fishing.

Boaters know that the outflow channel from the Bruce B plant is an official safe harbour for boats in distress on Lake Huron, said McClement.

“So it’s not surprising someone in trouble would head to the Bruce plant for help,” he said.

Brissette said the men came ashore near the decommissioned Douglas Point nuclear station, about 2 kilometres from Bruce B’s active nuclear reactors and 5 kilometres from the mothballed reactors at Bruce A.

Both Bruce A and B are protected by additional security fences, said Brissette.

Bruce Power, recognizing the potential for similar incidents, is installing telephones along the shore.

“Then, if anyone is in trouble, they can call and be hooked up to our security people,” said Brissette.

 

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Ontario criticized over nuclear disaster plan

Peter Calamai
Toronto Star
October 4, 2001

 Not prepared for emergencies, expert says

OTTAWA – Ontario has dragged its feet far too long revising a provincial plan to handle emergencies at nuclear power plants, a member of the federal atomic safety watchdog complained here yesterday at a hearing into restarting the Pickering reactors.

Chris Barnes said he found it “incredulous” that provincial officials have been discussing a new emergency action plan for roughly five years.

The plan co-ordinates response to a radiation leak or other major nuclear incident from local police and fire, hospitals, federal nuclear regulators, Emergency Measures Ontario and Ontario Power Generation, which operates the Pickering nuclear station east of Toronto on the shores of Lake Ontario.

The delay means decisions have not yet been taken on whether to mark evacuation routes with signs, how to distribute radiation-protective doses of iodine, and how wide an area to notify after a major incident, including a terrorist attack.

Under provincial law, any nuclear emergency plan must be approved by the Ontario cabinet. Although the only approved plan dates from 1986, provincial and local officials have actually been using an interim revised plan for the past several years, a hearing by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission was told.

“I am personally incredulous that we are still only at the consideration of an interim plan,” said Barnes, a part-time commission member and geologist at the University of Victoria.

He said the delay was striking in a province that generates half its electricity from nuclear power and that has recently experienced a significant environmental health problem, apparently referring to Walkerton’s contaminated water.

Barnes noted that OPG, successor to Ontario Hydro, has already spent $1.3 billion overhauling the older half of the Pickering station, four nuclear reactors shut down for the last four years.

“I’m amazed that another part of the Ontario government wouldn’t have brought along its side of the equation,” he said to Neil McKerrell, director of Emergency Measures Ontario.

McKerrell did not respond to a question about whether a lack of political will was delaying the revised plan. But he commented on the drawn-out discussions between EMO and numerous agencies and local governments.

“It would be simpler if there weren’t so many people involved in the process,” he said.

EMO estimates it could take between four and nine hours to evacuate the 20,000 people from the Pickering plant and the three kilometres around. To evacuate a 10-kilometre radius – which includes the town of Ajax – would involve moving 180,000 people and would take between 19 and 29 hours.

The nuclear safety commission must approve a licence before the refurbished Pickering reactors can be restarted. A formal decision is not expected for several weeks, but the federal regulator has never yet refused to licence a commercial nuclear power reactor.


Response from Energy Probe’s Norman Rubin

Canadian Nuclear Safety Commissioner Chris Barnes is right to be “incredulous” and “amazed” that Ontario still has no nuclear emergency plan. But Dr. Barnes’s own Commission has contributed to this hazardous situation by refusing to insist that Canada’s reactors have emergency plans before the Commission grants them a license to operate. Obviously, reactors without an adequate emergency plan cannot be considered to be safe to operate – yet the Nuclear Safety Commission continues to certify them as safe, by blithely licensing them to operate.

Moreover, in 1987, an Ontario government Working Group recommended that Ontario’s Nuclear Emergency Plan should be redesigned to respond to the enormous radiation leak that would result from a sophisticated terrorist “hijacking” of a CANDU nuclear generating station like Pickering, just outside Toronto. In response, Ontario Hydro aggressively lobbied the Ontario government with all its resources, from the Chairman down to junior staff, to defeat that sensible and prudent proposal. As a result, the emergency plan that Dr. Barnes impatiently awaits is grossly inadequate to respond to the threat we now face. I sincerely hope Dr. Barnes can convince his colleagues on the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to do something about this deplorable situation, and not just to express amazement at it.

 

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Changing the energy climate: clean and green heat from grass biofuel pellets

October 3, 2001

R. Jannascha , R. Samsona, A. de Maioa, T. Adamsb and C. Ho Lemaa

Resource Efficient Agricultural Production-Canada,

Box 125, Ste Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada

J7V 7P2, www.reap-canada.com/,

Tel (514) 398-7743 Fax (514) 398-7972.b

Energy Probe, 225 Brunswick Ave.Toronto, Ontario,

CanadaM5S 2M6,
www.energyprobe.org,

tel: 416-964-9223 Fax: 416-964-8239

Abstract

Uncertain energy supplies and international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions have created unique opportunities for biofuel development. Pelleted fuels from warm season grasses such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) can be grown for $3-4/GigaJoule (gj) with only minor emissions of CO2. Using close-coupled gasifer combustion technology, switchgrass fuel pellets emit 86%, 91%, 71% and 89% less CO2 than electricity, heating oil, natural gas and propane, respectively.

Every 100 ha of switchgrass converted into pellet form and used to displace fossil fuel for space-heating prevents the emission of 1000 tonnes of CO2. Heating an average Ontario house with a 90GJ heat demand costs $1213 with switchgrass pellets compared to $2234, $1664, $882 and $3251 with electricity, heating oil, natural gas and propane, respectively.

An estimated 23.4 million acres of agricultural land in Canada could potentially be converted to perennial grass biofuel production. The depressed farm sector would benefit economically from energy farming. Low-grade heat energy derived from grass pellets could displace some of the 30,000 GigaWatt Hours of electricity currently used for home heating in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba.

 Surplus electricity could be exported or used to replace nuclear or coal burning plants. Contrary to prevailing beliefs that reducing ghg emissions will raise societal energy costs, pelletized grass biofuels could provide consumers with less expensive and more ghg-friendly heating options than most fossil energy sources. If the political support and direction exist to implement the Kyoto Protocol as intended, grass pellets could well become a heating fuel of choice in North America.Key words: switchgrass, biofuels, pellets, energy, CO2, greenhouse gases 

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Natural Resources Canada for supporting the work on switchgrass pelleting and development of the Dell-Point close-coupled gasifier pellet stove. We would also like to thank the Agricultural Adaptation Council of Ontario for their support in the preparation of the economic and market analysis portion of this work.

Introduction

The sharp increase in energy prices during 2000-2001 served as a reminder of the global dependence on diminishing supplies of fossil fuels. Although oil and natural gas prices have eased somewhat from their peaks, consumers remain vulnerable to fluctuations in price and supply. Increased demands for electricity and widespread blackouts in California have heightened concerns about the security of energy supplies. Although the response of the U.S. government has been to promote increased production of oil, coal and nuclear energy, this strategy should be seen as a short-term option with unacceptable long-term consequences. The recent ratification of a modified version of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol is the first international binding treaty to mitigate global warming by reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. A dedicated effort to development and promote clean sources of alternative energy would go a long way towards safeguarding the planet’s energy and environmental security.

Biofuels derived from perennial grass crops are consistent with Canada’s commitments to reduce ghg emissions by 5.2% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (unfccc, 1997). Energy obtained from perennial plant biomass is essentially carbon neutral because carbon released during combustion is effectively recycled into plant tissues through photosynthesis. The only net loading of CO2 into the atmosphere takes place during production and processing operations. Some crops may also lead to carbon sequestration in the soil creating a carbon sinks (Zan et al., 2001).

Wood, wood chips, and more recently wood pellets, are the most traditional and ubiquitous biofuels. Innovations in the production of corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel from oilseeds, as well as the combustion of crop residues such as straw, mark significant advances in biofuel development. More recently, REAP-Canada has pioneered the development of biofuel pellets made from switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) for use in space heating applications. Warm season grasses such as switchgrass can be grown in many parts of North America at a cost of $3-4/GigaJoule (gj). Between 100-250 gj (the heat contained in 15-40 barrels of heating oil) can be harvested per hectare of farmland and about 88% of the original energy in a switchgrass crop can be captured as usable heat (Samson et al., 2000). Switchgrass pellet heating systems represent a tremendous opportunity to displace high grade energy forms such as natural gas, heating oil and electricity with a low grade, clean burning fuel. Large sections of the enormous North American agricultural land base are suited to producing herbaceous feedstocks. 

The comparative advantage of grass biofuels

Densification of wood residues into pellets for space and water heating has been used in Europe since the 1970s. Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Spain and Portugal, are currently export markets for Canadian wood pellet processors. Densification creates a clean burning, convenient and concentrated fuel from fibrous waste.

Wood pellet heating systems are considered an essential component of European plans to reduce ghg emissions and are targeted by incentive programs in countries such as Germany, Norway and Sweden (Malisius et al., 2000). In North America there are an estimated 500,000 pellet burning stoves and furnaces with wood pellet production totaling about 650,000 tonnes (PFI, 2001). However, further expansion is hampered by shrinking supplies of wood residues, partly a result of the more efficient use of the waste fraction of delivered roundwood.

For example, between 1988 and 1998, the volume of wood residues declined by almost 50% across Canada with the exception of Quebec (Hatton, 1999). The bulk of residues in Quebec are bark, an inferior product due to a high ash content. Many pelletmanufacturers believe the declining feedstock supply is critical and that further expansion of the pellet fuel industry depends on developing a sustainable, dedicated supply of feedstock (Greg Gillepsie, personal communication).

Warm season grasses offer a substantial opportunity to generate large quantities of herbaceous feedstock. This high yielding plant group includes corn (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sugarcane (Saccharum sp.), as well as switchgrass. In contrast to cool season grasses such as timothy (Phleum pratense) and reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), warm season grasses are 50% more water efficient and respond well to high temperatures. These are desirable qualities as the planet enters a period of global warming.

In addition, efficient water use produces biomass with reduced ash levels which improves the combustion quality of the fuel (Samson and Mehdi, 1998). Switchgrass is one of three grass species native to the North American tallgrass prairie and numerous ecotypes grow wild from Mexico to Labrador. In cool regions, more chilling tolerant grasses such as prairie sandreed (Calamovilfa longifolia) and prairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata) may be more productive energy crops.The comparative advantage of switchgrass as a pelleted biofuel stems from technical, economic and environmental factors. These include:

  • Switchgrass is adapted to marginal soils typified by drought and low fertility, which generally do not support cash crops such as corn and soybean.
  • Switchgrass stands have a lifespan of 6-10 years and fossil fuel inputs are limited to field operations necessary for establishment, annual maintenance and harvesting operations. The net energy output to input ratio, including processing and transportation costs, is 14.6:1, assuming a feedstock energy content of 18.5 GJ/t (Girouard et al., 1999; Samson et al., 2000).
  • Pelleting is a relatively simple and inexpensive means for upgrading energy quality. About 88.2% of the original biomass energy is recovered as heat versus 25.5, 30.9 and 15.7% for switchgrass co-fired with coal, cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and grain corn ethanol, respectively (Samson et al., 2000).
  • The Dell-Point “close-coupled gasifier” stove is capable of burning switchgrass pellets with fuel conversion efficiencies in the same range as modern oil furnaces (80-85%). Each gj of grass pellet energy delivered to consumers thus directly substitutes for one GJ of delivered oil and can be utilized without significant air pollution. Switchgrass pellets have a CO2 loading value of 8.17 kg CO2/gj (Figure 1) compared to 62.13, 89.67 and 58.32 kg CO2/gj for natural gas, heating oil and electricity, respectively (nrc, 2001).
  • Biomass, a low grade heat source, is used to displace high grade heat forms such as oil, gas and electricity for space and water heating, effectively adding value to the biomass and freeing energy for transportation and electrical applications.

  Heating Costs and CO2 emissions 
Assumptions:
The heating costs of fuel types are unrelated and the dotted line connecting the different heating costs is for illustrative purposes only.Electricity has an energy content of 0.0036 GJ/kWh, a delivered fuel value of 8.93 cents/kWh, a C02 loading value of 58.32 kg C02/GJ and is converted at 100% efficiency. The approximate electrical mix for Ontario is: 59% hydro-power, 12% nuclear, 16.1% coal, 7% oil, 5% natural gas and 1% other (NRC, 2000).Heating Oil has an energy content of 0.0387 GJ/l, a delivered fuel value of 58.64 cents/l, a C02 loading value of 89.67 kg C02/GJ, and is converted at 82% efficiency.

Natural Gas

has an energy content of 0.03723 GJ/m3 ,a delivered fuel value of 31 cents/ m3, a C02 loading value of 62.13 kg C02/GJ, and is converted at an average efficiency of 85%

Propane

 has an energy content of 0.0253 GJ/l, a delivered fuel value of 77.68 cents/l, a CO2 loading value of 71.14 kg CO2/GJ, and is converted at an efficiency of 85%. Wood Pellets (bagged) have an energy content of 19.8 GJ/tonne, a delivered fuel value of $230/tonne, a C02 loading value of 8.17 kg C02/GJ, and are converted at 82% efficiency

Switchgrass Pellets (bagged)

have an energy content of 19.0 GJ/tonne, a delivered fuel value of $210/tonne, a C02 loading value of 8.17 kg C02/GJ, and are converted at 82% efficiency. b Heat estimates made for a new detached 2000 sq. foot home with a 90GJ heat requirement (Natural Resources Canada, 1997). The analysis does not include capital costs associated with equipment. Switchgrass pellets offer significant savings over the costs of electricity (52%), heating oil (27%) and propane (63%) in Ontario (Figure 1). Grass pellet heating systems may also be attractive in regions such as Manitoba and Quebec where electricity use for space heating is high, and in Atlantic Canada where heating oil is widely used. Although the domestic heating market for propane is relatively small, switchgrass could be very cost-effective in rural markets where propane is widely used for heating greenhouses and swine and poultry barns. It is clear that among the major heating fuels natural gas is currently the most economical heat source. However, it is worth noting that natural gas prices have decreased by about 60% in recent months, and that further price fluctuations could occur. The gap between grass pellets and natural gas could be narrowed further if bulk pellets were distributed for $175/t. The cost of heating a house with a 90 GJ annual heat demand would decrease from $1213 to $1011.

Bulk pellet handling using pneumatic systems and trucks is being introduced in Europe to improve convenience and lower costs to the consumer (Malisius et al., 2000). Another option for cost reduction currently being developed by VIFAM Pro-Services Inc., Montreal, is a mobile pellet system for direct, on-farm use.The ‘closed coupled gasifier’ technology used in the Dell-Point stove is a product of a partnership between Dell-Point Technologies (www.pelletstove.com) and Natural Resources Canada’s Advanced Combustion Laboratory to design a high efficiency, low emission pellet stove capable of burning fuels with moderate ash levels such as bark and switchgrass. The stove’s high efficiency compares favourably with the more modest efficiencies of 35-69% for most pellet stoves on the market. The design is such that a lower operating temperature exists in the bottom of the gasifier where the first stage of combustion occurs, allowing the ash to fall through a grate into an ash pan, reducing the formation of clinker. A gaseous combustion stage then occurs in the top of the gasifier.

The stove’s efficiency stems from a reduced and carefully regulated in airflow.Switchgrass pellets burned in the Dell-Point stove produce 86%, 91%, 87% and 89% fewer CO2 emissions than electricity, heating oil, natural gas or propane, respectively (Figure 1). Substituting energy crops such as switchgrass for fossil fuels used in space heating can be a highly effective ghg reduction strategy. For example, every 100 ha of switchgrass converted to pellets and used to displace heat derived from fossil fuels would save, on average, about 1000 t of CO2 from being released to the atmosphere (Table 1). 

 Table 1. Reduction in CO2 emissions (tonnes) per 100 ha of switchgrass used to displace fossil fuel derived heat
Fuel Type Kg CO2 Emitted per 19,000 GJ CO2 emissions (tonnes) avoided by displacing fossil energy with switchgrass
Electricity 1.1 million 945
Heating Oil 1.7 million 1.55
Natural Gas 1.2 million 1.05
Propane 1.4 million 1.25
Switchgrass 0.155 million  

19,000 GJ is the heat equivalent of 100 ha of switchgrass yielding 10 t/ dry matter/ha converted to pellets. 

Switchgrass for carbon sequestration

Perennial grasses have the potential to sequester carbon in terrestrial carbon sinks by virtue of continuous soil cover, reduced tillage, prolonged root growth and repeated above ground biomass production. It is not clear, however, whether high yielding biomass crops with low fertilizer applications such as switchgrass help increase soil carbon. Zan et al. (2001) found that accumulation of soil carbon was dependent on soil type and fertility levels and that switchgrass plantations did not always function as a carbon sink. A more telling indicator of the overall carbon balance of a switchgrass crop may be a comprehensive accounting of carbon cycling resulting from management inputs such as fertilizer and machinery use. Although soil carbon storage may help limit CO2 emissions, sequestration does little to address the fundamental problem of society’s high reliance on fossil fuels. Displacing fossil fuels with grass-based biofuels, on the other hand, should have a much more immediate and long lasting impact on reducing ghg emissions than credits for carbon storage.  

Comparative costs of perennial grass energy crops

Perennial grass crops have an advantage over other energy sources in that feedstock costs should follow long-term agricultural commodity prices. North American hay, corn and wheat prices have remained relatively stable over the past 20 years (Figure 2), and because crops such as switchgrass share many of the same production characteristics as hay, this trend bodes well for keeping the long-term cost of grass biofuels low. In contrast,fossil energy prices have been gradually increasing. In Manitoba, for instance domestic energy costs have steadily increased over the past two decades whereas long-term hay prices measured in $/Gigajoule have remained stable (Figure 3). The rising prices of fossil fuels means a major agro-industrial opportunity has developed to convert low cost, solar energy into ghg-friendly biofuels. The comparative advantage of biomas should increase in the future because two factors will contribute to long-term price stability. Historically, agricultural commodity prices have declined in real dollars as a result of advances in crop production and mechanization.

 Secondly, plant breeding and the introduction of improved plant materials has increased crop productivity. These traditions are expected to continue. Modest price increases can be expected from rising input costs (fuel and fertilizer) and possibly higher land costs should large areas be converted to switchgrass production. However, the net impact on biofuel prices will, in all likelihood, be a fraction of the rate of increase in fossil fuel prices.  Estimating the potential North American land base for energy farmingThe potential land area available for biofuel production from perennial grasses in Canada and the U.S. is 23 and 130 million acres, respectively (Table 2). The values are derived from the assumption that 10% of the major annual cropland, 30% of hay land and 30% of seeded pasture could be planted to switchgrass. For the U.S., 10% of the nation’s massive pasture/rangeland acreage is also included. The projected biofuel acreage represents about 14 percent of the agricultural land base in both nations.  

 Table 2 Farmland in North America and Potential Acreage for Biofuel Production
  Land Use Millions of Acres Percent Converted Millions of acres of Biofuel Production
Canada
  Major annual crops 70.9 10% 7.1
Hay 15.3 30% 4.6
Seeded pasture 10.7 30% 3.2
Summerfallow 15.5 30% 4.6
Pasture & rangeland 38.6 10% 3.9
Woodland and other land 16.9 0% 0.0
Total 167.9 13.9% 23.4
U.S.A.
  Major annual crops 240.2 10% 24.0
Hay 60.8 30% 18.2
Seeded pasture 64.7 30% 19.4
Orchards & vegetables 8.8 0% 0.0
Idle cropland & fallow 56.9 50% 28.5
Pasture & rangeland 396.0 10% 39.6
Woodland & other land 104.4 0% 0.0
Total 931.8 13.9% 129.7

 

Potential biomass production in Canada could total approximately 14 million tonnes (Table 3). The most promising regions to develop a grass pellet fuel industry are those where hay production costs are low (generally indicated by low land rents) and heating costs are high. Based on hay prices, land costs, switchgrass performance and winter heating costs, the best regions in North America are the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the provinces of Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. Manitoba is a good location for a biofuel pellet industry because hay prices are among the lowest in North America and the province has few fossil energy reserves. The gap between delivered heat costs of conventional energy sources and hay costs is rapidly growing. In real dollars, long-term hay prices remain flat at $3/GJ ($55/tonne) while delivered heat costs for natural gas, oil and electricity are rising. With current pellet production costs estimated to be $3.2/GJ ($60/tonne) and a conversion efficiency at combustion of 80%, delivered heat costs for grass pellet fuels are projected to be in the $10-$14.00/GJ range.

Ontario has the largest production potential for fuel pellets due to the province’s large land base and good productivity, but production costs are approximately $65/t due to higher land rents and production costs. The highest productions costs are in Quebec ($75/t) where heavy subsidies in the agricultural sector have inflated land and crop values. Major factors influencing the economic viability of pellet biofuels will be market proximity and competing market prices of fossil fuels. Both Ontario and Quebec have the advantage of large energy markets relatively close to feedstock production areas. However, Quebec has a relatively inexpensive supply of electricity whereas natural gas is used to heat about half the detached homes in Ontario (nrc, 2000).   

 Table 3 Farmland in Selected Provinces and States and Potential for Biofuel Production
Location Land use Total acreage(millions acres) Percentage converted Area(millions acres) PotentialProduction(million tonnes)*
Ontario
  Annual crops 5.8 10 0.58   6.12
Hay 2.3 30 0.69
Seeded pasture 0.86 30 0.26
Total 1.53
Quebec
  Annual crops 2.06 10 0.21   3.95
Hay 2.29 30 0.67
Seeded pasture 0.48 30 0.15
Total 1.04
Manitoba
  Annual crops 9.54 10 0.95   3.66
Hay 2.02 30 0.60
Seeded pasture 0.88 30 0.26
Total 1.83

 

Values derived from agricultural statistics (1997-2000, OMAFRA, MAPAQ, Manitoba Agriculture, Statistics Canada). *Based on yields of 4.0, 1.8, 2 and 3 t/a for Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, respectively. Hydro-rich provinces such as Quebec and Manitoba may consider increasing electricity exports by encouraging domestic energy users to switch from electrical heating to biofuels. Thirty-six percent of the residential heat demand in Quebec (average for 1990-98) and 32% in Manitoba is currently met by electricity (nrc, 2001). Heat from biomass represents an excellent opportunity to displace high-grade electric energy with an energy form that is more appropriate to its final application. Energy substitution could be a major opportunity to reduce GHG emissions while increasing energy exports.

Substituting switchgrass biofuels for electricity currently used for space heating in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba could make an estimated 30,000 gwh of power available for export (Figure 4). This would produce a substantial increase in sales given that the national electric energy exports totaled 18,779 gwh between January and May, 2001, and earned revenues of $2.8 billion (Strange, 2001). Alternatively, the energy could be used for shutting down aging nuclear plants or high CO2 loading coal plants. Regardless of the electricity’s end use, displacing even a small portion of the Canadian electrical heat demand with grass pellet biofuels would produce significant economic returns and move Canada a long way towards meeting its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. 

 The prospects for pellet biofuels

Switchgrass fuel production in Eastern Canada is positioned for the early stages of commercialization. Production methods are well established (Girouard et al., 2000) and plantations are established in Ontario, Quebec, and, more recently, in Manitoba. One pellet plant in southwest Quebec is currently processing small quantities of pellets, and several others in Ontario have expressed interest. Production of multi-fuel pellet stoves (grass pellets, wood pellets, corn) by Dell-Point Technologies is about to undergo a major expansion. The establishment of a pellet fuel industry will probably proceed incrementally as alternative heat markets and production capability evolve. A major constraint to pellet production is accessing pelleting infrastructure close to switchgrass production zones. Currently pelleting capability exists at alfalfa pelleting plants, but these are not always located in the most favorable regions (areas with marginal soils, low land rents) for switchgrass production. Plants in eastern Canada have relatively low outputs of approximately 10,000 tonnes/yr.

New plants with a 100,000 tonne capacity could considerably reduce production costs. Other important areas of research and development include the production of consistently high quality fuel (low dust, durable pellets), efficient transportation, delivery and storage techniques, and increasing overall convenience to the consumer. Europe is the industry leader in this area and various innovations are being modeled after the livestock feed industry. Crop yields could be improved by breeding varieties with earlier maturity and better over-wintering qualities.

Dissemination of information, marketing, advertising and gaining consumer acceptance are essential steps to promote widespread implementation of pellet heating systems. Pellet fuel development would be further advanced by applying close coupled gasification technology to the design and manufacture of larger capacity pellet furnaces. This would spur a more rapid demand for feedstock and greenhouse operators and livestock farmers reliant on propane could grow their own fuel and considerably reduce their fuels costs. A viable pellet industry would contribute ancillary benefits to the depressed farm sector. The farm crisis caused by surplus production, low prices and increasing input costs could be partly alleviated by diverting a portion of the agricultural land base into energy farming. Farmers would benefit by utilizing marginal farmlands to increase energy self-reliance or by producing a marketable crop. Construction and operation of pellet plants would also boost non-farm employment in rural areas.

Future energy prices will undoubtedly affect the development of the pellet fuel heating sector. Current predictions are that natural gas will remain the most economical heating fuel in the short-term. Pellet heating appears to be most attractive in rural areas not serviced by natural gas, and areas where prices for electricity, heating oil and propane are high. The volatile energy market, however, means there is no guarantee that gas prices will stay low. Moreover, the environmental costs associated with CO2 emissions must be factored in to the economic equation. For instance, the prospect of accumulating carbon credits for clean burning fuels or the imposition of a carbon tax on foosil fuels would considerably narrow the economic gap between switchgrass pellets and natural gas. If the political support and direction exist to implement the Kyoto Protocol as intended, grass biofuel pellets may well become a heating option of choice.ConclusionPelleted warm season grasses such as switchgrass have enormous potential as a biomass fuel even though the current share of the heat energy market filled by wood fuel pellets is small.

The potential exists because of high crop productivity, a large and underutilized agricultural land base, an efficient combustion system and increasing prices for fossil fuels. CO2 emissions can be reduced by 1000 tonnes for every 100 ha of switchgrass converted to pellets and substituted for fossil fuels used to generate heat. Replacing high-grade energy forms such as oil, natural gas and electricity with grass biofuels is a logical and necessary step in developing a cost-effective and environmentally responsible energy supply. Contrary to prevailing beliefs that reducing GHG emissions will raise societal energy costs, pelleted biofuels can provide consumers with lower cost and more secure heating options than many conventional sources. As energy prices continue to rise and the global warming becomes more pronounced, grass biofuel pellets will become an increasingly attractive heating option in North America 

Literature cited

Hatton, T. 1999. Canada’s wood residues. A profile of current surplus and regional concentrations. CanadianForest

Service.Girouard, P., Zan, B., Mehdi, B. and Samson, R. 2000. Economics and carbon offset potential of biomass fuels, Final Report. PERD Program, Natural Resources Canada, Contract # 23341-6-2010/00 1/SQ, pp. 96.Girouard, P., Mehdi, B., Samson, R. and Blais, PA. 1999. Commercial production of switchgrass in Eastern Ontario: A management guide. Resource Efficient Agricultural Production, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Quebec (www.reap.ca). King, J.E. 1999. Pelletized switchgrass for space and water heating. Final Report, prepared by Coriolis Lts., Lawrence, Kansas, submitted to KCC, Grant No. De-FG48-97R802102, Sept. 1999 Malisius, U., Jauschnegg, H., Schmidl, H., Nilsson, B. Rapp, S., Strehler, H., Hartmann, H., Huber, R., Whitfield, J., Kessler, D., Geisslhofer, A. and Hahn, B. 2000. Wood Pellets in Europe. Industrial Network on Wood Pellets. UMBERA GmbH, A-3100 St. Poelten, Schiessstattring 25.NRC (National Resources Canada) 2001. Office of energy efficiency

http://oee1.nrcan.gc.ca, visited July, 2001. NRC (National Resources Canada) 2001. Canada’s emissions outlook: An update, at http://www.NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca/inter/index.html, visited July, 2001.PFI (Pellet Fuels Institute) 2001.  

http://www.pelletheat.org, visited March, 2001.Samson, R., Drisdelle, M., Mulkins, L., Lapointe, C. and Duxbury, P. 2000. The use of switchgrass as a greenhouse gas offset strategy. Proceedings of the Fourth Biomass Conference of the Americas, Buffalo, New York, Oct. 15.Samson, R. and Mehdi, B. 1998. Strategies to reduce the ash content of perennial grasses. Bioenergy ’98: Expanding Bioenergy Partnerships, Proceedings. Madison, Wisconsin, Oct. 4-8, 1998.Strange, A. (ed.) 2001. Canadian exports of electricity. Energy Analects, 30 (15):5. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), 1997. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change.

 In: Proceedings of the English Conference of the Parties – Third Session, Kyoto, 1-10 December 1997.Zan, |C.S., Fyles, J.W., Girouard, P. and Samson, R. 2001. Carbon sequestration in perennial bioenergy , annual corn and uncultivated systems in southern Quebec. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 86:135-144.

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Nuclear Control Institute

October 1, 2001

Information on stopping the spread and reversing the growth of nuclear arms. Extensive coverage of nuclear plant terror threat.

http://www.nci.org/index.htm

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FAA restricts flights near World Series, nuclear plants

CNN
September 30, 2001

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Heeding the latest terrorist warning, the Federal Aviation Administration is temporarily restricting flights near the World Series games in New York and around nuclear sites.

The restrictions over New York City prohibit any aircraft operating under visual flight rules from flying within 30 nautical miles of John F. Kennedy International Airport during World Series games. The ban is in effect from 6:45 p.m. until 2 a.m. ET and lasts until midnight, November 6.

Restrictions were even tighter during President Bush’s appearance at Tuesday’s game.

All aircraft flying below 3,000 feet were prohibited from approaching within three nautical miles of JFK airport from 7:05 p.m. until 7:15 p.m. ET, and from 10:30 p.m. until 10:45 p.m. ET.

The nuclear sites ban, which affects 80 facilities such as power plants and Energy Department areas, restricts aircraft flying below 18,000 feet from coming within a radius of 10 nautical miles of each facility.

The restrictions underscore Attorney General John Ashcroft’s announcement Monday of “credible reports” that another major terrorist attack may be possible within the week.

“The FAA realizes these restrictions inconvenience general aviation pilots and airports,” said FAA Administrator Jane Garvey in a press release. “As the FAA and other federal agencies continuously review measures to ensure national security, we look for the understanding and cooperation of the general aviation community.”

“Pilots must make every effort … to avoid these sensitive areas,” said Phil Boyer, president of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.

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Nuclear Terror

Tom Adams
Energy Probe
September 28, 2001

Dear Concerned Citizen:

A successful terrorist attack at a Canadian nuclear reactor could kill tens of thousands of people and cause untold damage and suffering. An attack on the Pickering nuclear plant could poison Lake Ontario, making its water undrinkable for the 6 million people who now depend on it, and it could require the permanent evacuation of the Greater Toronto Area.

From our own inspections of various facilities, and from our knowledge of the nuclear industry, we know that Canada’s nuclear plants are not secure and that the industry’s own risk assessments assume zero probability of terrorist attack. After the horrific hijackings in the US, we confirmed with Canadian aviation authorities that flights, including low level flights, over the Pickering and Darlington nuclear plants, continue to be permitted. There are no technical impediments to restricting air space. Low-level flights over the Toronto Zoo, for example, are prohibited.

An attack from the air is only one of many possible scenarios. In a letter we sent September 15 to Prime Minister Jean Chretién, his minister of defence, and his solicitor-general, we outlined several highly vulnerable aspects of the Candu nuclear system and other nuclear facilities in Canada. Some of these involve our direct knowledge of vulnerable entry points. For security reasons, we cannot provide you with details, but we can say that terrorists would not need great sophistication to conduct an attack with unimaginable consequences. Only the military has the capability to protect our plants against some of the tactics available to terrorists. In our September 15 letter, we also explained how unique characteristics of Canada’s nuclear program may have allowed terrorists access to intimate knowledge of our nuclear weaknesses and could, in future, allow them access to Canadian nuclear reactors themselves.

Energy Probe has studied the security of Canada’s nuclear plants for 25 years, and has many times expressed concern about them to the public, to authorities, and to the courts. Nuclear plants are horribly inviting targets, not only for terrorists but also for other combatants should Canada ever find itself at war. For such reasons, the US and USSR military both tried to stop their governments from building nuclear plants during the Cold War.

Our nuclear plants can be made much more secure and, we believe, they must. We are hopeful that the military and other law enforcement officials have taken our advice, and put in place measures to prevent the most awful of consequences.

 

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Chalk River Tough Target

Kathleen Harris
The Ottawa Sun
September 28, 2001

An airborne terrorist attack on the Chalk River nuclear facility would likely cause only limited destruction, say atomic power experts.

Fred Boyd, a spokesman for the Ottawa-based Canadian Nuclear Association, says the research reactor at Chalk River is heavily protected by concrete and reinforced steel. It would not be easily penetrated, but it would be possible with the force of an air attack, he speculated.

“It would be nothing like a nuclear bomb,” he said. “In terms of damage, it would be no worse than the accident in 1952.”

A mishap destroyed the core of the reactor that year, causing some fuel to melt and the release of radioactive contamination into the air and water.

If the reactor, which contains a combination of uranium fuel and heavy water, were penetrated now, stringent safety measures would immediately shut it down to minimize the release of radioactive material, he said. Security is also in place to prevent potential contamination of nearby water supplies.

“Some could get out of the heavy piping and leak into the water system, but the likelihood is extremely small,” Boyd said.

Because the potential level of destruction is relatively low, the Chalk River site would not be high on the list for terrorists.

“The risk of terrorists targeting a nuclear research reactor is very small because there are so many lines of protection,” he said.


Response by Energy Probe

Energy Probe has communicated with the Canadian government advising that certain facilities at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories are vulnerable to attack or sabotage. Energy Probe has recommended military protection for those facilities. We believe that there are other facilities on the site that present a more serious danger than the research reactor.

 

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