TD Bank Financial Group
September 29, 2008
TD Bank Financial Group
September 29, 2008
Lawrence Solomon
FP Comment
September 28, 2008
In yet another sign that the Earth could be heading in to a period of global cooling, NASA reports that the solar wind is now at a 50-year low, the lowest that NASA has seen. This change in solar activity, which began to occur about a decade ago, coincides with the end of the climb in global temperatures that had been underway for decades.
“What we’re seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s,” explains Arik Posner, NASA’s Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC.
“How unusual is this event?
“It’s hard to say. We’ve only been monitoring solar wind since the early years of the Space Age—from the early 60s to the present. Over that period of time, it’s unique. How the event stands out over centuries or millennia, however, is anybody’s guess. We don’t have data going back that far.”
As a result of the diminished solar wind, cosmic rays are entering the Earth’s atmosphere in greater number. Research at the Danish National Space Institute shows that cosmic rays increase cloud cover on Earth, and that this cloud cover can have a cooling effect. Does this help explain why global temperatures plateaued a decade ago, and why they are now decreasing? Stay tuned!
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute, and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
(Sept. 13, 2008) The public debate on oil sands fails to recognize that restoration is possible and not that expensive. Continue reading
Lawrence Solomon
National Post
September 13, 2008
The public debate on oil sands fails to recognize that restoration is possible and not that expensive.
Alberta’s oil sands projects are ugly. Their tailings ponds pockmark the northern Alberta wilderness. Their open pit mines scar the land. This certifiable ugliness, the trademark symbol of oil sands destruction, has been the chief source of opposition to their development over the three decades that this rawest of resource industries has been in play.
This reason for oil sands opposition has largely disappeared. Oil sands still scar the land but in time the scars are removed, the tailings ponds are drained, the biota is brought back, and the land becomes as productive as before. Oil sands developments, far from being among the worst of energy technologies, now have less of a long-term negative impact on the landscape than many of the energy technologies touted as environmental saviors.
Thanks to ever tightening environmental legislation from the Alberta government, all oil sands operators are required to rehabilitate the land that they had despoiled. Skeptics pooh pooh this obligation, claiming that the scale of destruction on the vast oil sands expanse will be too great to ever remediate, that the work will never be done, that it will be too expensive.
To the contrary, the scale of destruction is far less extensive than imagined, the cost of remediation is far lower than imagined, and the remediation is being done along the way.
The oil sands region is indeed immense — just over 140,000 square kilometres, the equivalent of about two New Brunswicks. But of that, less than 3,500 square kilometres is suited to open pit mining operations. Of this still-large amount of land — approaching 5% of one New Brunswick — only 500 square kilometers has been disturbed to date and, of that, 13% has already been rehabilitated (Syncrude, the largest open-pit miner, has rehabilitated 22%). Relatively little land is laid bare at one time because the mining proceeds in a methodical fashion, in relatively small parcels at a time. After each parcel of land is mined out, it is backfilled, topped with the original over-matter, resoiled and replanted. While the vanguard of the mining operation chews up the land, the rearguard puts it back into place.
From the first shovel in the ground to begin the mining process, to the last tree that’s replanted, can take as little as 15 years, of which 10 years might be spent in remediation. The cost of the remediation per hectare per year now averages about: $2000, or $20,000 should the remediation take 10 years. Because that same hectare will have produced 10,000 barrels of oil, remediation costs as little as $2 per barrel.
The tailings ponds — better thought of as recycling pits — are part of this extract-and-reconstruct process. The ponds are not stagnant but dynamic, a half-way house for the gooey, silty wastes that come from the open-pit mining process. Over time, the solids in the tailings pond settle to the bottom, allowing the water to be recycled for other industrial operations and the solids to be pumped out for backfill. When the ponds are no longer needed in recycling, they are either topped up with fresh water, to become an ecologically sound lake, or backfilled and landscaped.
The overwhelming portion of the oil sands region — more than 135,000 square kilometres — has bitumen deposits too deep for open pit mining. Here, developers bring the bitumen up through wells, an operation not much different in terms of disturbing the land than the conventional oil drilling that has occurred over much of Alberta for decades. Little land is disturbed. For every billion barrels of oil extracted, and most oil sands oil will come from these wells, a mere 5.5 square kilometres of land will be disturbed.
None of this is pretty or easy on the environment, but energy production rarely is. Alternatives are often far worse and, as a practical matter, represent permanent and irreversible changes to the ecology. To obtain coal, we sometimes level entire mountains. To generate hydroelectricity, we flood vast tracts of river valley. To obtain, biofuels we convert forests to plant fuel crops.
Oil sands’ need to restore land is only one of its environmental burdens. This spring, some 500 migratory birds died when they landed in Syncrude’s tailings ponds — a severe snowstorm prevented the company’s vehicles from reaching the ponds in time to detonate the cannons that, for the previous 30 years, had succeeded in keeping birds away. Accidents might occur at the tailings ponds — recycled water might escape to the environment if safety systems fail, for example.
Oil sands are by no stretch benign. But neither are they the overarching evil that they’re portrayed to be.
Second in a series, also featuring:
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute, and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
Lawrence Solomon
National Post
September 6, 2008
Russia’s energy supplies enabled their aggression, Canada’s supply could be the placating alternative.
“When it comes to action over Georgia, Russia has the European Union over a barrel. In fact, 1.2 million barrels. That’s how much Russian crude is pumped westward every day down the Druzhba pipeline to fuel Europe’s economies.”
So began an article in the International Herald Tribune, one of many last week explaining why Europe — and the west — has little choice but to sacrifice parts of Georgia, and maybe a lot more, to Russia’s ambitions.
“Russia knows that when it comes to conducting a serious foreign and security policy, Europe is all mouth,” says Lord Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU external relations commissioner. This impotence emboldens Russia and revives its centuries-long drive to control neighbouring states.
A new Cold War looms, many are concluding, financed by Russia’s new found energy wealth and fueled by appeasement. Is the free world doomed to decades of hostility due to Europe’s energy vulnerability?
1.2 million barrels of oil a day is a lot. Or not. Alberta’s might as an energy power is now based largely on the ongoing development of just seven oil sands projects, most of them on the ultimate scale of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of oil a day. Add three or four projects from Alberta on that scale to produce another 1.2 million barrels of oil per day and Europe’s entire oil dependence on Russia can be eradicated. A democratic peace-promoting country would have come to Europe’s rescue, providing not just oil but the steel needed in Europe’s spine.
The oil would do more than loosen Europe from the grips of an untrustworthy supplier who has shown no hesitation in using its energy exports to bully its customers — the Ukraine, Georgia, and Estonia have all felt Russia’s wrath. With an immense addition to the world oil markets from Alberta, oil prices will plummet along with the need for appeasement, in the process weakening despotic and militaristic regimes. High oil prices arm despots against their own people, as with Burma’s military regime; they finance terrorism abroad, as with Iran; and they make dreams of empire thinkable, as with Russia.
Pictured: The world’s longest conveyer belt at the Muskeg River Mine project in Alberta.
Canada’s oil sands are rightly known for the immense environmental problems that they pose. They should also be known for their role in promoting peace and security around the globe. Canada already exports some 2.5 million barrels of oil a day to U. S., more than half of it from oil sands, providing the Americans with a secure supplier that reduces its need to intervene militarily in far-flung oil-producing regions.
Energy security remains a top political issues in the U. S. One of Barack Obama’s central pledges in his acceptance
speech last week was getting off Mideast oil in a decade. The U. S. imports some two million barrels of Mideast oil per day. In a decade, if the Alberta government’s plans come through, that entire two million barrels could come from increases in Alberta oil sands production alone. In another decade, Alberta hopes to expand its production by another three million barrels per day. Advancing just 1.2 million of that three million for the sake of Europe, and for the cause of peace, should become an imperative.
In the 1980s, when oil from oil sands cost about $30 a barrel, and oil prices were often in the $20 to $30 range, oil sands required economic subsidies to be viable business propositions, even ignoring their environmental harm. With oil now at $100 per barrel and production costs about $10 a barrel and expected to fall further, the profitability of oil sands is immense. No subsidies can be justified, economic or environmental.
Oil sands have a host of problems. These include known harms — they consume and pollute too much water, they despoil too much land — and they include one potential harm — greenhouse gases, which many scientists believe can cause the planet to warm dangerously. But problems have a way of getting solved, as we’ve seen with coal. Once the dirtiest of fuels, coal can now be burned cleanly, thanks to improvements in technology. Clean coal has the same emissions profile as natural gas, and it is getting cleaner still.
Oil sands are following the same route to rehabilitation. They still consumes too much water, but less than half as much as before. Although some 500 square kilometres of land has been despoiled to date, land is also beginning to be rehabilitated, as it must under the terms of the agreements that the producers signed with the government — Syncrude has reclaimed some 4,500 hectares at its site north of Fort McMurray, with impressive results. Greenhouse gas emissions are being halved.
Alberta’s oil sands represent one of the planet’s largest reservoirs of energy — some 2.5 trillion barrels of crude bitumen from which 300 billion barrels are estimated to be available, an amount that rivals the reserves of Saudi Arabia. They need to be developed properly: cleanly, to protect the environment, and quickly, to promote peace and stability.
Photo credit: Ted Jacob, Canwest News Service
First in a series, also featuring:
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute, and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
Matthew Sheffield
Washington Times
August 21, 2008
Wikipedia, the community-edited encyclopedia that anyone can revise, is one of the Web’s biggest success stories. What you may not know is that it also has become an important player in the political world.
Started in 2001 on a shoestring budget, Wikipedia now ranks as the ninth most popular Web site in the U.S., according to Internet ratings company Alexa.com, outpacing such “old media” stalwarts as CNN, ESPN and the New York Times. (It’s even more popular worldwide, where it is currently the seventh most-read site.)
Since its launch, Wikipedia has become a valuable tool for students, journalists, lawyers and anyone looking to settle an argument, find a quick bit of information or start a research project.
This popularity makes Wikipedia very interesting in a political context, particularly because its pages are highly regarded by most Internet search engines. Chances are, if you look up the name of most any state or national politician, the Wikipedia entry on him or her will be in your top three results. In some cases, such as those of President Bush or Vice President Dick Cheney, Wikipedia’s article actually beats out the official government biography pages.
When you add to its popularity the fact that Wikipedia has more than 10 million articles and great search-engine placement, it’s pretty hard to avoid the conclusion that Wikipedia is one of the most influential publications in American politics.
Basically anyone who works in political communications will acknowledge the value of Wikipedia as a messaging tool, but you would be surprised to find out how few politicians have come to this realization. That’s because most political leaders are either too busy or too technologically out of touch to make the Internet a part of their media diets. Many D.C. elites think that because they have no contact with the interactive Web in their personal lives, no one else does either.
Unfortunately for the right, there seems to be a higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats who suffer from this thinking. Whether it’s a senator wondering how long it takes for “an Internet” to arrive or a nonprofit president thinking that placing an op-ed in the Podunk Courier is an accomplishment, the right has not placed the value on Wikipedia that it deserves.
Conservatives seems to be making another critical error regarding the online encyclopedia on the question of political bias. You can’t entirely blame them either, considering that Wikipedia seems to have tilted leftward in a number of cases.
As my NewsBusters colleague P.J. Gladnick has documented, the online encyclopedia blocked all mention of allegations that former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards had conducted an extramarital affair.
In addition, Wikipedia articles on so-called “climate change” similarly tend to leave out information that contradicts conventional liberal views.
The reason for this is in the editing. Anyone can alter Wikipedia’s entries, in most cases without even bothering to register for an account. What this means in practical terms is that people with enough determination to force their viewpoints on Wikipedia can do so.
Accomplishing this task can take up large amounts of time, up to 15 hours a week, according to Jonathan Schilling, a 50-something software developer from central New Jersey interviewed by the New Republic in April.
Mr. Schilling told the magazine that he spent several hours a day managing the Wikipedia article about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton during the Democratic presidential primaries, all on his own initiative using the online name “Wasted Time R.”
Journalist Lawrence Solomon uncovered similar levels of dedication among extreme environmentalists when he tried to correct an entry that incorrectly stated that global warming skeptic Benny Peiser had endorsed an alarmist study.
The temperature debate is not the only area where left-wing bias skews Wikipedia’s articles. Right-leaning critics have noted the encyclopedia’s tilt in entries on Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken, Minnesota Democrat and former talk-show host for the liberal radio network Air America.
Faced with such bias, many people on the right seem willing to retreat from the Wiki Wars, resorting to legal maneuvering to block particularly noxious entries and crying foul about Wiki unfairness. Still others on the right have withdrawn to their own site, Conservapedia.
There is nothing wrong with such efforts, but they are incomplete — incomplete because they fail to recognize that liberal bias at Wikipedia isn’t like bias at ABC or CBS. These institutions are dominated by liberals, true, but their systematic structure is such that the ability for people on the right to push for fairness is severely limited.
That is not the case with Wikipedia, a participatory medium in which those who are most active enjoy the most influence. It’s time for the right to dust off its hands and engage in some old-fashioned activism.
Matthew Sheffield is a Web consultant and creator of NewsBusters.org.
Related stories on this topic, by Lawrence Solomon:
Is Wikipedia promoting global warming hysteria?
Wikipropaganda – Spinning green
Lawrence Solomon
National Post
August 13, 2008
Oil imports are destroying the U. S., say a rising tide of alarmists in the U. S., chief among them T. Boone Pickens, the legendary oil man turned wind power developer. "It is a clear and growing threat to our national security, and our national economy," he testified to the U. S. Senate. "It has to be stopped. We are on the verge of losing our Super Power status."
To hear it from Pickens, who is mounting a national ad campaign to promote his wind power investments, it’s even worse than that — the U.S. is aiding and abetting its enemies.
"We don’t buy all of our oil from our enemies. We do have some friends — Canada and a few others. But most of the money that the world pays for oil goes into the hands of countries that are not our reliable allies. And some of that money is used right back against us in the war on terror. And so, we are funding the people who are trying to wreak havoc on this country."
Pickens is outrageously misleading. True, the U.S. does import most of its oil, but barely — only 56.5% of net U.S. oil needs are now met from exports according to the most recent figures from the U. S. Energy Information Administration, not the 70% that Pickens’ ads claim. Moreover, this "oil dependency," as it’s called, is diminishing, not increasing, as Pickens claims, and precious little of it comes from countries that can be thought of as enemies of the U. S.
Neither is the U.S. dependent on any one country for an outsized amount of oil — the U.S. imports oil from some 69 nations, most of it from friends and allies and precious little from hostile states, including from newly hostile Russia, which meets less than 2% of U.S. needs.
America’s single largest supplier of oil is America, which meets almost half of its own needs. America’s single largest external supplier is Canada, which meets some 12% of U. S. needs. Add in Mexico, another large and reliable supplier of oil, and the U.S. meets about 62% of its needs from North American sources.
Add in other friendly countries in the Americas, such as Brazil, Columbia and Argentina, and the U.S. meets more than two-thirds of its needs from this hemisphere.
The U.S. imports oil from only one country in the Americas that can be considered hostile — Venezuela, which meets 6% of U.S. demand. To eliminate that 6% — and Russia’s 2%, too — the U.S. would only need to develop a fraction of its offshore oil resources.
Much is made of America’s dependence on the Middle East for its oil imports. In fact, the entire Persian Gulf meets only 12% of U.S. needs, and that 12% comes overwhelmingly from allies. Saudi Arabia, America’s largest supplier in the Gulf, meets 8% of U.S. needs and Iraq, the second largest supplier and a fast growing one, meets 3%. Kuwait, the country the U.S. rescued in the first Gulf War, is next, at just over 1%. America’s true enemies in the Gulf — Iran and Syria–account for virtually 0%.
Should America forsake trade with its friends and allies in the Gulf region? Or in Africa, where 16 countries — most of them very poor and small — are oil suppliers? Or in Asia, which all told meets less than 2% of U. S. needs? Or European suppliers such as Norway? Every country that sells the U.S. oil in return buys U.S. food, machinery and other U.S. exports.
America should not fear trade, and it should not feel trapped. Its oil suppliers are highly diverse, from around the world. Moreover, because high prices have transformed the economics of developing North American energy resources, the bulk of U.S. oil needs — now and into the foreseeable future — is likely to come from the continent. Canada, which is rapidly developing its tar sands, is soon expected to double its exports to the U.S., with another doubling to follow.
More to the point, with the U.S. public now overwhelmingly in favour of exploiting America’s vast on-and offshore resources, the U.S. is likely to ramp up its own production and — if it ever wanted to — could well displace all of its non-North American oil imports.
But why would it want to?
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
Lawrence Solomon
FP Comment
August 11, 2008
Those who view the Sun, and not CO2, as a driver of temperatures on Earth look to various measures of solar activity for explanations of climate change. For one such measure — radio waves from the Sun, or solar flux — they look to Canada’s Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in the Okanagan valley, near Penticton, British Columbia. What they find supports the view that another Little Ice Age could be coming.
Solar activity of late has been extraordinarily low. You can follow the solar flux along with the scientists, if you wish, by periodically clicking here. The column that’s third from the right shows the actual observed readings. The columns to its right are corrected by several percent to remove various distortions. The column at the extreme right hand is considered the most accurate of the three.
The observatory’s Solar Radio Monitoring Program, operated in conjunction with the Canadian Space Agency, produces three precise measurements of the solar flux density each day — solar radio emissions at 10.7 cm wavelength. The observatory believes that the 10.7 cm solar radio flux may be the most heavily used single piece of astronomical information in the world.
Why 10.7 cm? In 1946, famed Canadian astronomer Arthur Covington decided to measure the Sun’s “radio flux” — the variations in the Sun’s energy output at radio wavelengths. After realizing that the flux changed daily, and wondering if these variations were related to the sunspots on the Sun’s surface, he took advantage of a partial solar eclipse to monitor variations as the Moon covered the sunspots. In discovering that the sunspots emit much stronger radiation than the more luminous unspotted areas, he established that sunspots are associated with radiation “hot spots.” Covington used a radio wavelength of 10.7 cm (2800 megaHertz) to monitor the activity of the Sun.
For an explanation of the science, I offer the following excerpt from the National Geophysical Data Center in the U.S., which relies on the observatory’s data:
“The sun emits radio energy with a slowly varying intensity. This radio flux, which originates from atmospheric layers high in the sun’s chromosphere and low in its corona, changes gradually from day-to-day, in response to the number of spot groups on the disk. Radio intensity levels consist of emission from three sources: from the undisturbed solar surface, from developing active regions, and from short-lived enhancements above the daily level. Solar flux density at 2800 megaHertz has been recorded routinely by radio telescopes near Ottawa (February 14, 1947-May 31, 1991) and Penticton, British Columbia, since the first of June, 1991. Each day, levels are determined at local noon (1700 GMT at Ottawa and 2000 GMT at Penticton) and then corrected to within a few percent for factors such as antenna gain, atmospheric absorption, bursts in progress, and background sky temperature.”
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
SIDC http://sidc.oma.be
The Solar Influences Data Analysis Center — SIDC — is the solar physics research department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, a data analysis service of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical data analysis Service, and the World Data Center for the Sunspot Index.
SIDC collects monthly observations from worldwide stations in order to calculate the International Sunspot Number, Ri. The center broadcasts the daily, monthly, yearly sunspot numbers, with middle-range predictions (up to 12 months). Since August 1992, it has also provided hemispheric sunspot numbers.
ROB has operated SIDC since 1981. In 2000, SIDC obtained the status of Regional Warning Center (RWC) of the International Space Environment Service (ISES) and became the "Solar Influences Data analysis Center."
(July 26) A radioactive part was missing for almost two months at the Bruce nuclear plant before a worker walking through an area called “the vault” discovered the problem after his radiation detector went off, writes Tyler Hamilton in the Toronto Star. Continue reading